The Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (-3) are entering the Conference USA Championship Game as favorites as they prepare to take on the UAB Blazers. This Saturday afternoon game is scheduled to start at 1:30 p.m. ET and CBS Sports Network will broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs. UAB Blazers
In this Saturday Conference USA matchup, Middle Tennessee is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 3 points. The Blazers are also receiving +120 moneyline odds while the Blue Raiders are -140. There might be some decent live betting opportunities for this matchup, and Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 45 points.
The line opened at -3 while the over/under hasn’t changed since it opened at 45.
Each of these teams has been profitable this season as the Blazers have gained 2.8 units while the Blue Raiders are up 6.0 units.
The Blazers have gone 9-3 straight up (SU), including 7-1 SU against CUSA opponents. The Blue Raiders are 8-4 SU overall and 7-1 SU in conference play.
The Blazers lost to Middle Tennessee 27-3 in a blowout where the passing attack wasn’t where it needed to be as A.J. Erdely completed just nine passes on 20 attempts for 90 yards and one interception. As a team, the Blazers managed a total of -1 rushing yards in the loss.
Middle Tennessee just earned a 27-3 win over UAB. The defense held its ground in the victory, limiting the Blazers to just 90 passing yards and -1 yards on the ground. Kailon Carter had a good outing in the defeat, posting 49 yards on two catches for UAB. For Middle Tennessee, Brent Stockstill completed 22-of-29 passes for 261 yards and two touchdowns. Chaton Mobley (52 yards on 14 rush attempts) led the ground game in the win while Ty Lee (seven receptions, 100 yards, one TD) and Zack Dobson (four catches, 30 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.
UAB has run the ball on 64.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Middle Tennessee has an overall rush percentage of 52.1 percent. The Blazers have produced 207.3 rush yards/game (including 192.0 per game versus Conference USA opponents) and have 30 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Blue Raiders are totaling 136.3 rush yards per game (148.3 in conference) and have 15 total rushing TDs.
It appears that the Blazers could hold an advantage when it comes to RB efficiency, as their running backs has generated 4.7 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 3.5 YPC to opponents. The Blue Raiders have ran for 3.7 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 4.1 to opponents.
The Blazers offensive scheme has logged 195.8 yards per contest through the air overall (181.4 per game against conference opposition) and has 13 passing scores so far. The Blue Raiders have recorded 246.5 pass yards per contest (244 in the CUSA) and have 26 total pass TDs.
Defensively, UAB should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 120.9 yards and throw for 166.3 yards per game. The Middle Tennessee defense has allowed 219.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 154.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Blazers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.62 to opponents, while the Blue Raiders have given up a 5.22 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Johnston III is up to 504 yards this season, and has completed 29-of-57 attempts with four scores through the air and five interceptions. He has a 5.88 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.17 over the last two outings.
Brent Stockstill has managed to complete 242-of-349 passes for 2,559 yards, 23 TDs and five INTs for Middle Tennessee. His ANY/A stands at 7.11 for the year and 7.70 over his past two games.
When these two squads faced one another a year ago, UAB emerged victorious by a final score of 25-23.
UAB Blazers vs. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Free Pick
SU Winner: UAB, ATS Winner: UAB, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The O/U for UAB’s last game was set at 51.5. The under cashed in the team’s 27-3 defeat to Middle Tennessee.
- UAB, as a team, has averaged 1.9 yards per carry over its last three games and 1.7 over its last two.
- Middle Tennessee has averaged 3.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.2 over its past two.
- The Middle Tennessee offense has lost eight fumbles this season while UAB has lost four.
- In its last three matchups, UAB is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Middle Tennessee’s previous match was set at 51.5. The under cashed in that 27-3 win over UAB.
- In its last three contests, Middle Tennessee is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Middle Tennessee has won six of its last seven games SU, with a -11-point loss to Kentucky on November 17th accounting for the lone defeat over that span.
- Each team has produced seven pass plays of 40+ yards. The Blazers have have made 21 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Blue Raiders have created 16 such plays.
- The UAB defense has allowed five pass plays of 40+ yards, while Middle Tennessee has given up 11 such plays.
- The UAB offense has created 21 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Middle Tennessee has created 12 such runs.
- The Blazers defense has allowed 18 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Blue Raiders have given up 19 such runs.
- The UAB defense has 40 sacks on the year while Middle Tennessee has just 34.
