Two schools that like to run the football, Coach Gary Patterson and the TCU Horned Frogs are getting 4.5 points when they take on their Big 12 foe Oklahoma State Cowboys to Amon G. Carter Stadium. The matchup will start at 8:00 p.m. ET and FOX will broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. TCU Horned Frogs
In this Saturday Big 12 game, Oklahoma State is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 4.5 points. If they want to play the moneyline, bettors would currently have to put down $200 in order to win $100 back on the Cowboys (-200). The Horned Frogs are getting +170 moneyline odds. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 57.5 points, and there should be some good live betting opportunities in this game.
The Cowboys have lost 12.5 units so far and are 6-5 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 6-4.
The Horned Frogs have lost 10.2 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 2-8-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-6.
The Cowboys are 6-5 straight up (SU), including 3-5 SU against conference opponents. The Horned Frogs are 5-6 SU overall and are also 3-5 SU in conference play.
The Cowboys just put together a 45-41 win over West Virginia last week. Taylor Cornelius completed 30-of-46 passes for 338 yards, five touchdowns and two interceptions. Chuba Hubbard (134 rushing yards on 26 attempts) and the signal-caller Cornelius (106 yards on 13 carries, one TD) led the running attack in the win. Dillon Stoner (nine receptions, 127 yards) and Tylan Wallace (seven catches, 62 yards, two TDs) handled the receiving duties.
The TCU Horned Frogs just got a 16-9 win over Baylor. The team’s defense allowed the Bears to rush for 140 yards on 40 attempts, along with one rushing TD. Jalen Hurd was a bright spot in the defeat for Baylor, recording 68 yards on four catches. As a group, the Horned Frogs collectively completed 15-of-21 passes for 151 yards and one touchdown. Grayson Muehlstein went 11-for-15 for 137 yards and one touchdown while Michael Collins was four-of-six for 14 yards. Emari Demercado (60 rushing yards on 15 attempts) and the signal-caller Muehlstein (10 yards on 10 carries) led the ground game in the win as Jalen Reagor (four receptions, 86 yards, one TD) and Taye Barber (four catches, 33 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
Each squad sports a remarkably similar (53-47) run-pass ratio on the season. Having said that, the Cowboys have produced 200.5 rush yards per game (including 179.4 per game against Big 12 opponents) and have 26 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Horned Frogs haven’t been quite as productive, as they’re totaling 139.2 rush yards per game (106.8 in conference) and have 12 total rushing TDs.
The Cowboys offense has logged 319.5 yards per contest through the air overall (314.3 per game versus conference opposition) and has 29 passing TDs so far. The Horned Frogs have put up 231.0 pass yards per contest (227 against Big 12 competition) and have 16 total pass scores.
Dp>Defensively, Oklahoma State has allowed 173.0 rush yards and 265.4 pass yards per game. The TCU defense has given up 204.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 145.7 yards per game on the ground. The Horned Frogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.93 to opposing QBs, while the Cowboys have given up a 6.82 ANY/A.Passing-wise, Cornelius is up to 2,960 yards this year. The signal-caller has connected on 61 percent of his 348 attempts with 25 passing scores and 10 interceptions. Cornelius has a 7.50 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.64 over the last two outings.
Chuba Hubbard, Tylan Wallace and Dillon Stoner have combined for 790 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns over the last two outings.
Michael Collins has completed 57-of-103 passes for 830 yards, five TDs and two INTs for TCU. His ANY/A sits at 7.90 for the season and 4.96 over his past two games.
We expect the Horned Frogs to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to Jalen Reagor (820 receiving yards, seven receiving TDs this season), Darius Anderson (579 rush yards, three rush TDs) and Emari Demercado (162 rush yards) have brought significant production to the Horned Frogs’ recent offensive gameplans.
These two squads met a year ago with the final result being a 44-31 victory for TCU.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at TCU Horned Frogs NCAA Pick
SU Winner: Oklahoma State, ATS Winner: Oklahoma State, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- The Cowboys offense has produced 12 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Horned Frogs have put up 11 such plays.
- The Oklahoma State defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while TCU has given up eight such plays.
- The Oklahoma State offense has created 23 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while TCU has created four such runs.
- The Cowboys defense has allowed 18 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Horned Frogs have given up 10 such runs.
- The Oklahoma State defense has sacked opposing QBs 38 times this season. TCU has registered just 29 sacks.
- Oklahoma State, as a team, has rushed for 5.0 yards per attempt over its last three games and 5.3 over its last two.
- TCU has averaged 2.3 yards per carry over its last three outings and 2.3 over its last two.
- Over its last three games, TCU is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Oklahoma State’s last game going into it was 73. The over cashed in the team’s 45-41 win over West Virginia.
- In its last three matchups, Oklahoma State is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for TCU’s last game was set at 49. The under cashed in the 16-9 win over Baylor.
