Head Coach Bryan Harsin and the No. 19 Boise State Broncos (-3) are entering the Mountain West Championship Game as favorites as they prepare to take on Coach Jeff Tedford and the No. 25 Fresno State Bulldogs. Kickoff for this big showdown is scheduled for 7:45 p.m. ET and ESPN has the TV rights.
Betting Preview: Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos
Fresno State is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 3 points in this MWC game. The Bulldogs are also receiving +120 moneyline odds while the Broncos are -140. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 51 points. On the surface it looks like there should be multiple good live betting opportunities for this match.
This game’s opening line was -3. The O/U hasn’t changed since it opened at 51.
The Bulldogs are 8-4 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 3.5 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 2-9.
The Broncos have gained 0.5 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 7-4-1 ATS and own an O/U record of 5-6-1.
The Bulldogs are 10-2 straight up (SU), including 7-1 SU against MWC opponents. The Broncos are 10-2 SU overall and are also 7-1 SU in conference play.
The Bulldogs are coming off a resounding 31-13 victory over San Jose State last week where Marcus McMaryion completed 20-of-29 passes for 317 yards and two touchdowns. Ronnie Rivers (92 yards on 17 rush attempts) and Jordan Mims (55 yards on eight carries, one TD) led the ground attack in the win while KeeSean Johnson (seven receptions, 173 yards, one TD) and Jared Rice (three catches, 49 yards) manned the receiving duties.
Boise State is coming off of a 33-24 win over Utah State. The defensive secondary allowed the Aggies to air it out for 363 yards and three touchdowns. Aaren Vaughns was a bright spot in the loss, recording 107 yards on seven catches for Utah State. For Boise State, Brett Rypien completed 23-of-32 passes for 310 yards and one touchdown. Alexander Mattison (200 yards on 37 rush attempts, three TDs) led the ground game in the win while CT Thomas (six receptions, 89 yards) and Sean Modster (five catches, 81 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
Each team sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Fresno State has run the ball on 53.3 percent of its offensive possessions while Boise State has an overall rush percentage of 52.0. The Bulldogs have produced 148.6 rush yards/game (including 140.1 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 27 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Broncos are totaling 162.8 rushing yards per game (161.9 in conference) and have 23 total rush TDs.
The Bulldogs offensive scheme has logged 282.8 yards/contest through the air overall (287.1 per game against conference opposition) and has 25 passing scores so far. The Broncos have produced 305.9 pass yards per outing (294 in the MWC) and have 30 total pass TDs.
Fresno State seems to hold the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 121.8 yards and pass for 199.8 yards per game. The Boise State defense has allowed 238.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 123.3 yards per game on the ground. The Bulldogs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.42 to opponents, while the Broncos have given up a 6.66 ANY/A.
Offensively, McMaryion is up to 3,016 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 241-of-342 attempts with 23 passing scores and only three interceptions. He has a pristine 9.39 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 11.38 over the last two outings.
In the other locker room, Brett Rypien has connected on 269-of-389 passes for 3,358 yards, 26 TDs and seven INTs. Rypien’s ANY/A stands at 8.20 for the season and 8.95 over his last two outings.
Fresno State Bulldogs at Boise State Broncos Free Prediction
SU Winner: Boise State, ATS Winner: Boise State, O/U: Under
Betting Trends
- The Over/Under for Fresno State’s previous game was set at 52. The under cashed in the team’s 31-13 victory over San Jose State.
- Fresno State, as a team, has produced 4.0 yards per carry across its last three games and 4.1 over its last two.
- Boise State has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.0 over its past two.
- The Boise State offense has lost four fumbles this season while Fresno State has lost five.
- In its last three matchups, Fresno State is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- Fresno State has won 10 of its last 11 games SU, with a November 9th defeat to Boise State accounting for the only loss over that stretch.
- The Over/Under for Boise State’s last game going into it was 63. The under cashed in the team’s 33-24 win over Utah State.
- In its last three games, Boise State is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The Bulldogs offense has registered nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Broncos have accounted for 14 such plays.
- The Fresno State defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Boise State has given up 10 such plays.
- The Fresno State offense has created 13 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Boise State has created 12 such runs.
- The Bulldogs defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Broncos have given up 12 such runs.
- The Boise State D has sacked opposing QBs 37 times this year. Fresno State has registered just 21 sacks.
