A couple of teams that prefer running the football, Coach Pat Fitzgerald and the Northwestern Wildcats are getting 10.5 points as they prepare to host their in-conference rival No. 20 Iowa Hawkeyes to Ryan Field. Kickoff for this showdown is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET and ESPN2 will televise the action.
Betting Preview: Northwestern Wildcats vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
In this Saturday Big Ten matchup, Iowa is projected as the big favorite and is currently giving up 10.5 points. The Hawkeyes are also receiving -425 moneyline odds while the Wildcats are +315. If one team gets out in front in the early stages it’ll result in a reasonable betting opportunity in-game. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 37.5 points.
Square bettors are siding with the Hawkeyes, as the line opened at 9.5. The game’s O/U has yet to change after being initially placed at 37.5.
The Hawkeyes are 2-5 against the spread (ATS) and have recorded 1.0 unit so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U mark of 2-5.
The Wildcats have lost 2.0 units this season. The team is 2-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-4.
The Hawkeyes have gone 5-2 straight up (SU), including 2-2 SU against conference opponents. The Wildcats are 1-5 SU overall and 0-4 SU in conference play.
The Hawkeyes are coming off a 26-20 victory over Purdue last week. Nate Stanley completed 23 passes for 260 yards and one interception. Mekhi Sargent (68 yards on 13 rush attempts, one TD) led the ground attack. Brandon Smith (nine receptions, 106 yards) and Nico Ragaini (six catches, 31 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
A week ago, Ohio State knocked off this Northwestern team by a score of 52-3. Aidan Smith completed six-of-20 passes for 42 yards and one interception. Isaiah Bowser (65 yards on 16 rush attempts) and Drake Anderson (39 yards on 13 carries) handled the running game as Riley Lees (three receptions, 19 yards) and Jace James (two catches, 10 yards) led the receiving corps in the loss.
Iowa has run the ball on 51.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Northwestern has an overall rush percentage of 58.3 percent. The Hawkeyes have produced 149 rush yards per game (including 91.8 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have nine touchdowns on the ground this year. The Wildcats are logging 153.2 rushing yards per game (137.5 in conference) and have six total rush TDs.
It appears that the Hawkeyes might own the advantage in terms of efficiency in the ground game, since their backfield has produced 4.0 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.3 to opponents. The Wildcats have tallied 3.6 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 4.4 to opponents.
The Hawkeyes offensive scheme has averaged 256.6 yards through the air overall (262.5 per game against conference opposition) and has nine passing scores so far. The Wildcats have recorded 124 pass yards per outing (116 against Big 10 foes) and have two total pass TDs.
Iowa has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 91.1 yards and throw for 183.9 yards per game. The Northwestern defense has allowed 180.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 165.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Hawkeyes are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 4.98 to opposing QBs, while the Wildcats have given up a 6.33 ANY/A.
Stanley probably has the edge over Smith in this one, as his adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 6.38for the year (and 5.71 over the last two outings). Smith’s ANY/A is -0.27 for the season and 1.44 across his last two games.
These two teams met last year with the final result being a 14-10 victory for Northwestern.
Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Northwestern Wildcats Betting Pick
SU Winner: Northwestern, ATS Winner: Northwestern, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The O/U for Iowa’s last game was 47.5. The under cashed in the team’s 26-20 triumph over Purdue.
- Iowa has rushed for 1.9 yards per attempt over its last three contests and 2.7 over its last two.
- Northwestern has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.6 over its last two.
- The Northwestern offense has lost four fumbles this season while Iowa has lost three.
- In its last three contests, Iowa is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- The Over/Under for Northwestern’s last match was set at 49.5. The over cashed in the 52-3 loss to Ohio State.
- Over its last three games, Northwestern is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Hawkeyes offense has created three pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Wildcats have accounted for one such play.
- The Iowa defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Northwestern has given up one such play.
- The Iowa offense has created seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Northwestern has created four such runs.
- The Hawkeyes defense has allowed zero rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Wildcats have given up seven such runs.
- The Northwestern D has sacked opposing quarterbacks 12 times this year. Iowa has recorded 11 sacks.
