A couple of schools that prefer to run the football, Coach Tim Lester and the Western Michigan Broncos (-26) are ready to take on the Bowling Green Falcons at Waldo Stadium. This conference showdown gets underway at 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can watch the action on ESPN 3.
Betting Preview: Bowling Green Falcons at Western Michigan Broncos
Bowling Green is a big road underdog here and is currently receiving 26 points by oddsmakers. If the Falcons get out in front early it’ll create a nice live betting scenario. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 63 points.
The Falcons have lost 3.0 units so far and are 2-5 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 2-5.
The Broncos are down 3.6 units this season. The team is 3-4-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-6.
The Falcons have gone 2-5 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against MAC opponents. The Broncos are 4-4 SU overall and 2-2 SU in conference play.
These two programs met last year with the final result being a 42-35 victory for Western Michigan.
The Falcons hope to get back on track after a 38-20 defeat to Central Michigan last week. The passing game could’ve been better as Grant Loy completed only 13-of-29 passes for 166 yards, one score and three interceptions. Loy (67 rushing yards on 18 attempts, one TD) also mounted the ground attack and was complemented by Bryson Denley (67 yards on 11 carries). Quintin Morris (four receptions, 69 yards) and Denley (three catches, 48 yards, one TD) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
One week ago, Eastern Michigan got the victory against this Western Michigan team by a score of 34-27. The Broncos defensive unit allowed the Eagles to pass for 407 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 140 yards. Shaq Vann had a good showing for Eastern Michigan, recording 97 rushing yards on 17 attempts. For Western Michigan, Jon Wassink completed 15-of-24 passes for 192 yards, one touchdown and one interception. LeVante Bellamy (113 rushing yards on 28 attempts, three TDs) spearheaded the running game as Giovanni Ricci (six receptions, 88 yards) and Keith Mixon Jr. (five catches, 46 yards) led the receiving corps in the loss.
Bowling Green has run the ball on 58.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Western Michigan has an overall rush percentage of 51.7 percent. The Falcons have produced 170.9 rush yards/game (including 190.7 per game versus Mid-American opponents) and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Broncos are logging 181.6 rushing yards per game (161.3 in conference) and have 20 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Broncos could have an edge in terms of effectiveness in the ground game, as their backfield has generated 5.2 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 4.6 to opponents. The Falcons have registered 4.1 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 5.3 to opponents.
The Falcons offensive scheme has logged 173 yards/contest through the air overall (185.7 per game against conference opposition) and has seven passing TDs so far. The Broncos have put up 266.1 pass yards per outing (219 in the MAC) and have 16 total pass scores.
Defensively, Bowling Green has allowed 214.6 rush yards and 258.6 pass yards per game. The Western Michigan D has allowed 266.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 184.3 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.9 to opponents, while the Falcons have allowed an ugly 9.00 ANY/A.
Wassink probably has the edge over Loy in this one. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 7.68 for the year and 5.61 over his past two games while Loy’s ANY/A is 2.97 (and 3.92 over the last two outings).
Bowling Green Falcons vs. Western Michigan Broncos Free Pick
SU Winner: Western Michigan, ATS Winner: Bowling Green, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Western Michigan defense has recorded 25 sacks on the year while Bowling Green has just 17.
- The Western Michigan offense has lost four fumbles this season while Bowling Green has let one get away.
- The Falcons offense has produced three pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Broncos have put up eight such plays.
- The Bowling Green defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Western Michigan has given up seven such plays.
- The Bowling Green offense has created six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Western Michigan has created 15 such runs.
- The Falcons defense has allowed 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Broncos have given up 15 such runs.
- The O/U for Western Michigan’s previous match was set at 62. The under cashed in that 34-27 loss to Eastern Michigan.
- In its last three games, Western Michigan is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- Over its last three contests, Bowling Green is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Bowling Green’s previous game was set at 54.5. The over cashed in the team’s 38-20 loss to Central Michigan.
- As a team, Bowling Green has rushed for 4.5 yards per attempt across its last three games and 5.4 over its last two.
- Western Michigan has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.5 over its last two.
