The Purdue Boilermakers (+24) are set to pay a visit to their conference nemesis No. 14 Wisconsin Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. FOX has the TV rights and kickoff will take place at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Purdue Boilermakers
Wisconsin has been tabbed as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 24 points to Purdue. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 48 points. It appears that there should be some solid live betting opportunities for this game.
The original odds have shifted, as the line opened at -22. The game’s over/under has not moved after it was set initially at 48.
The Boilermakers are down 6.0 units so far in 2019 and 6-4 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under mark of 6-4.
The Badgers are up 4.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-6.
The Boilermakers are just 4-6 straight up (SU), including 3-4 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Badgers are 8-2 SU overall and 5-2 SU in conference play.
Each team enters the matchup on a two-game undefeated streak. The Boilermakers are coming off a 24-22 victory over Northwestern on November 9 in which Aidan O’Connell completed 34 passes for 271 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions. King Doerue (43 yards on nine rush attempts, one TD) led the ground attack. David Bell (14 receptions, 115 yards, one TD) and Amad Anderson Jr. (nine catches, 67 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Wisconsin just picked up a 37-21 win over Nebraska. Jack Coan completed 13-of-21 passes for 162 yards and one touchdown. Jonathan Taylor (204 yards on 25 rush attempts, two TDs) handled the running game as Kendric Pryor (three receptions, 30 yards) and Quintez Cephus (three catches, 23 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Purdue has run the ball on 40.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Wisconsin has a rush percentage of 65 percent. The Boilermakers have run for 76.8 yards/game (including 88.3 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have seven touchdowns on the ground this year. The Badgers are totaling 235.1 rushing yards per game (224.3 in conference) and have 27 total rush TDs.
If 2019 numbers are any indication, then it’s looking like the Badgers could hold an edge in terms of RB effectiveness. Their backfield has produced 5.2 yards per carry while their defense has allowed a YPC of 3.5 to opponents. The Boilermakers have registered 2.7 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.5 to opponents.
The Boilermakers offensive scheme has tallied 298.5 yards per game in the air overall (267.4 per game against conference opposition) and has 23 passing scores so far. The Badgers have put up 190.1 pass yards per contest (161 against Big 10 foes) and have 13 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Purdue has allowed 172.2 rush yards and 238.5 pass yards per game. The Wisconsin defense has given up 154.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 103.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Badgers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.34 to opposing QBs, while the Boilermakers have given up a 6.51 ANY/A.
Offensively, O’Connell is up to 342 passing yards this year. He’s completed 43-of-65 attempts with three passing scores and two interceptions. O’Connell’s got a 4.48 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 4.59 over the last two games.
We expect the Purdue offense to mix it up in this one. King Doerue (332 rushing yards, four rush TDs, 95 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown this season), David Bell (768 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) and Brycen Hopkins (464 receiving yards, three TDs) have each played big roles of late.
In the other locker room, Jack Coan has completed 150-of-205 passes for 1,653 yards, 11 TDs and two INTs. Coan’s ANY/A sits at 7.72 for the season and 7.34 over his past two games.
Jonathan Taylor (1,213 rushing yards, 17 rush TDs, four receiving touchdowns on the year), Quintez Cephus (433 receiving yards, three receiving TDs) and Danny Davis III (69 rush yards, 176 receiving yards) have combined for 674 total yards and five touchdowns over the last couple of games.
When these two teams faced each other last year, Wisconsin knocked off Purdue by a field goal 47-44.
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Wisconsin Badgers Betting Pick
SU Winner: Wisconsin, ATS Winner: Purdue, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Boilermakers offense has created eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Badgers have accounted for three such plays.
- The Purdue defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40+ yards, while Wisconsin has given up three such plays.
- The Purdue offense has created two rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Wisconsin has created 17 such runs.
- The Boilermakers defense has allowed 19 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Badgers have given up 16 such runs.
- The Wisconsin defensive unit has recorded more than twice the sack total of Purdue this year (37 to 17).
- Purdue, as a team, has produced 3.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.8 over its last two.
- Wisconsin has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 6.8 over its past two.
- Over its last three matches, Wisconsin is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Purdue’s previous game was set at 38.5. The over cashed in the team’s 24-22 win over Northwestern.
- In its last three contests, Purdue is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Wisconsin’s last matchup was set at 50. The over cashed in that 37-21 win over Nebraska.
