A couple of schools that like to run the football, Head Coach Scot Loeffler and the Bowling Green Falcons (+29) are gearing up to pay a visit to their in-conference nemesis Buffalo Bulls at UB Stadium. Kickoff for this game is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET and you can watch the action live on ESPN+.
Betting Preview: Bowling Green Falcons vs. Buffalo Bulls
Bowling Green is a big road underdog here and is currently receiving 29 points by oddsmakers. If the Bulls get down early it will create a nice in-game betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 53 points.
The Falcons have lost 3.0 units this season and are 3-8 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 3-8.
The Bulls have gained 1.8 units this year. The team is 6-5 ATS and has an O/U record of 7-4.
The Falcons have gone 3-8 straight up (SU), including 2-5 SU against conference opponents. The Bulls are 6-5 SU overall and are also 4-3 SU in conference play.
The Falcons are trying to bounce back after a 66-24 loss to Ohio last week. Grant Loy completed 21-of-32 passes for 250 yards, along with a score and a pick. Davon Jones (95 rushing yards on 16 attempts, one TD) and Bryson Denley (70 yards on 13 carries, one TD) led the running attack in the loss while Quintin Morris (six receptions, 86 yards, one TD) and RB Marlow III (four catches, 41 yards) manned the receiving duties.
Buffalo is coming off of a 49-30 win over Toledo. The team’s defense allowed the Rockets to rush for 154 yards on 35 attempts, including three rush TDs. Bryant Koback had a good showing in the loss for Toledo, recording 99 rushing yards and a score on 17 attempts. For Buffalo, Kyle Vantrease completed 13-of-20 passes for 172 yards and one touchdown. Jaret Patterson (192 rushing yards on 32 attempts, four TDs) and Kevin Marks (118 yards on 16 carries, one TD) spearheaded the ground game in the win as Antonio Nunn (five receptions, 89 yards) and Daniel Lee (three catches, 47 yards) led the receiving attack.
Bowling Green has run the ball on 59.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Buffalo has a rush percentage of 69.6 percent. The Falcons have produced 166.8 rush yards/game (including 173 per game versus Mid-American opponents) and have 14 scores via handoffs this year. The Bulls are totaling 236 rush yards per game (243.4 in conference) and have 26 total rushing TDs.
If 2019 numbers can translate to this game, then it’s looking like the Bulls might own the edge in terms of RB efficiency. Their backfield has logged 4.6 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 2.9 to opponents. The Falcons have registered 3.9 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 5.5 to opponents.
The Falcons offensive scheme has logged 164.3 yards per contest through the air overall (164.7 per game versus conference opposition) and has nine passing TDs so far. The Bulls have produced 144.3 pass yards per contest (149 against MAC foes) and have 13 total pass scores.
Defensively, Bowling Green has allowed 223.5 rush yards and 232.8 pass yards per game. The Buffalo defense has allowed 208.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 94.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bulls are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.66 to opponents, while the Falcons have given up an 8.43 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Loy is up to 1,042 yards this year, and has connected on 60 percent of his 171 attempts with six scores through the air and eight interceptions. Loy has a 3.98 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 2.74 over the last two outings.
Kyle Vantrease has managed to complete 74-of-119 passes for 851 yards, six TDs and one INT for Buffalo. His ANY/A sits at 7.54 for the year and 8.24 across his past two games.
These two schools met a year ago with the final result being a 44-14 victory for Buffalo.
Bowling Green Falcons at Buffalo Bulls Free Prediction
SU Winner: Buffalo, ATS Winner: Bowling Green, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Over/Under for Bowling Green’s last game was set at 55.5. The over cashed in the team’s 66-24 loss to Ohio.
- Bowling Green, as a team, has produced 3.4 yards per carry across its last three contests and 4.1 over its last two.
- Buffalo has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.5 over its last two.
- The Buffalo offense has lost eight fumbles this season while Bowling Green has let six get away.
- Over its last three matchups, Bowling Green is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- Bowling Green has lost five of its last six games SU, with a 29-point victory over Akron on November 2nd representing the only win over that span.
- The Over/Under for Buffalo’s previous match was 53.5. The over cashed in the team’s 49-30 victory over Toledo.
- In its last three matchups, Buffalo is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- Buffalo has won five of its last six games SU, with a -3-point loss to Kent State on November 14th accounting for its only defeat over that span.
- The Falcons offense has produced five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bulls have put up six such plays.
- The Bowling Green defense has allowed 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Buffalo has given up nine such plays.
- The Bowling Green offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Buffalo has created 17 such runs.
- The Falcons defense has allowed 24 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Bulls have given up nine such runs.
- The Buffalo defense has sacked opposing QBs 38 times this year. Bowling Green has produced just 24 sacks.
