A couple of schools that prefer to run the football, Panthers of Georgia State (+14) are gearing up to welcome their SBC rival Appalachian State Mountaineers (-14) to Parker H. Petit Field at Georgia State Stadium. Fans can catch the action live on ESPNU and kickoff is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Georgia State Panthers vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers
Georgia State is a noticeable underdog in this SBC game and is currently receiving 14 points. The Mountaineers are also receiving -735 moneyline odds while the Panthers are +500. If one team can create a bunch of points in the early stages it’ll generate a nice live betting opportunity. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 62.5 points.
This game’s line opened at 14.5, while the O/U has not moved since it was set initially at 62.5.
The Mountaineers are 6-3 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 1.0 unit so far. The team has recorded an O/U mark of 4-5.
The Panthers have gained 3.8 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-2-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 5-3-1.
The Mountaineers have gone 8-1 straight up (SU), including 4-1 SU against SBC opponents. The Panthers are 6-3 SU overall and 3-2 SU in conference play.
The Mountaineers are coming off a 20-15 victory over South Carolina last week. Zac Thomas completed nine-of-15 passes for only 105 yards and one interception. Darrynton Evans (85 yards on 23 rush attempts) spearheaded the running attack. Corey Sutton (three receptions, 38 yards) and Evans (two catches, 32 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Georgia State just fell 45-31 to Louisiana-Monroe. As a group, the Panthers collectively completed 13-of-28 passes for 122 yards. Cornelious Brown went eight-for-18 for 80 yards while Dan Ellington was five-of-10 for 42 yards. Tra Barnett (190 yards on 32 rush attempts, two TDs) and Dan Ellington (91 yards on nine carries, one TD) mounted the running game while Cornelius McCoy (five receptions, 38 yards) and Jonathan Ifedi (two catches, 18 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Looking at offensive play-calling, each of these teams has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Appalachian State’s run the ball on 60.8 percent of its offensive possessions while Georgia State has a rush percentage of 61.9. The Mountaineers have produced 221.6 rush yards/game (including 236.6 per game versus Sun Belt opponents) and have 22 scores on the ground this year. The Panthers are putting up 274.7 rush yards per game (339.6 in conference) and have 24 total rushing TDs.
The Mountaineers offense has logged 193.8 yards per game through the air overall (213.2 per game against conference opposition) and has 16 passing TDs so far. The Panthers have produced 210.3 pass yards per outing (207 in the SBC) and have 18 total pass scores.
Defensively, Appalachian State should have the upper hand in both phases. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 148.6 yards and pass for 182.9 yards per game. The Georgia State defense has allowed 256.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 208.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Mountaineers are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.07 to opposing QBs, while the Panthers have given up an 8.08 ANY/A.
Ellington has completed 145-of-223 passes for 1,624 yards, 16 TDs and three INTs for Georgia State. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 7.30 for the season and 5.76 over his past two outings. In the other locker room, Thomas is up to 1,400 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 123-of-186 attempts with 11 passing touchdowns and four interceptions. Thomas has a 6.83 ANY/A, including 5.39 over the last two games.
These two programs met last year with the final result being a 45-17 win for Appalachian State.
Appalachian State Mountaineers vs. Georgia State Panthers Free Pick
SU Winner: Georgia State, ATS Winner: Georgia State, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Appalachian State D has 21 sacks on the year while Georgia State has 16.
- Georgia State has lost six fumbles in 2019 while Appalachian State has let one get away.
- The Mountaineers offense has produced seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Panthers have accounted for five such plays.
- The Appalachian State defense has allowed zero pass plays of 40+ yards, while Georgia State has given up nine such plays.
- The Appalachian State offense has created 22 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Georgia State has created 15 such runs.
- The Mountaineers defense has allowed 11 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Panthers have given up 19 such runs.
- The Over/Under for Georgia State’s last matchup going into it was 76. The O/U pushed in the 45-31 loss to Louisiana-Monroe.
- Over its last three matchups, Georgia State is 2-1 ATS.
- In its last three contests, Appalachian State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Appalachian State’s last game was set at 51. The under cashed in the team’s 20-15 triumph over South Carolina.
- As a team, Appalachian State has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.5 over its last two.
- Georgia State has averaged 6.7 yards per carry over its last three contests and 7.3 over its last two.
