A couple of schools that prefer to feature their running games, Head Coach Barry Odom and the Missouri Tigers (-17) are gearing up to play host to their conference foe Vanderbilt Commodores at Memorial Stadium at Faurot Field. This daytime game will start at 12:00 p.m. ET and SEC Network will broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: Missouri Tigers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
In this Saturday Southeastern game, Missouri has been projected as the heavy favorite and the team’s currently giving up 17 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently need to spend $1,400 to win $100 back on the Tigers (-1400). The Commodores are getting +780 moneyline odds. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 59 points. Multiple decent live betting opportunities should be unveiled during the showdown.
Early action has swayed to the Tigers. The line initially opened at -14 and the O/U was originally 58.5.
The Commodores are 5-4 against the spread (ATS) and are down 0.9 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U mark of 3-6.
The Tigers are down 0.7 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-4-1 ATS and have an O/U record of 5-3.
The Commodores have gone 4-5 straight up (SU), including 1-4 SU against SEC opponents. The Tigers are 5-4 SU overall and 1-4 SU in conference play.
The Commodores want to make it two in a row 45-31 victory over Arkansas on October 27. The passing attack was on point as Kyle Shurmur completed 13 passes for 192 yards and two touchdowns. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (172 rushing yards on 26 attempts, three TDs) and Khari Blasingame (46 yards on 10 carries, one TD) propelled the ground attack while Jared Pinkney (five receptions, 93 yards, two TDs) and Kalija Lipscomb (four catches, 44 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.
Missouri is coming off of a 38-17 win over Florida. Drew Lock completed 24-of-32 passes for 250 yards and three touchdowns. Damarea Crockett (114 yards on 21 rush attempts, one TD) and Larry Rountree III (72 yards on 14 carries, one TD) spearheaded the running game as Johnathon Johnson (five receptions, 47 yards) and Emanuel Hall (four catches, 77 yards, one TD) led the receiving attack in the win.
Each of these teams sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Vanderbilt’s run the ball on 52.6 percent of its offensive possessions while Missouri has an overall rush percentage of 53.5. The Commodores have produced 153.2 rush yards per game (including 131.0 per game versus Southeastern opponents) and have 14 scores on the ground this year. The Tigers are totaling 189.6 rushing yards per game (166.6 in conference) and have 19 total rush TDs.
The Commodores offensive scheme has logged 230.6 yards/game through the air overall (202.4 per game against conference opposition) and has 14 passing TDs so far. The Tigers have produced 280.2 pass yards per outing (196 in the SEC) and have 19 total pass scores.
Vanderbilt appears to have an advantage when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s let opponents run for an average of 196.7 yards and pass for 215.8 yards per game. The Missouri defense has allowed 279.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 125.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Commodores are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.55 to opposing QBs, while the Tigers have given up a 7.67 ANY/A.
Offensively, Shurmur has amassed 1,821 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 60 percent of his 242 attempts with 13 scores through the air and five interceptions. Shurmur’s got a 7.08 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.31 over the last two games.
The Commodores have tried to control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. Along with Jared Pinkney (441 yards, five TDs), Ke’Shawn Vaughn (667 rush yards, eight rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Khari Blasingame (300 rush yards, two rush TDs, 109 receiving yards) have been focal points in the offensive gameplans for Vanderbilt.
In the home locker room, Drew Lock has completed 178-of-284 passes for 2,229 yards, 19 TDs and six INTs. Lock’s ANY/A sits at 7.75 for the year and 7.35 over his last two games.
The Tigers also prefer to heavily feature their backfield. Johnathon Johnson (342 receiving yards, three TDs) has gotten involved lately, but Damarea Crockett (531 rush yards, five rush TDs) and Larry Rountree III (621 rush yards, eight rush TDs) have gotten a lot of touches recently.
When these two teams met a year ago, Missouri knocked off Vanderbilt by four touchdowns 45-17.
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Missouri Tigers Betting Prediction
SU Winner: Vanderbilt, ATS Winner: Vanderbilt, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Over/Under for Vanderbilt’s last game was set at 51.5. The over cashed in the team’s 45-31 victory over Arkansas.
- Vanderbilt, as a team, has produced 4.2 yards per carry across its past three outings and 4.0 over its last two.
- Missouri has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.0 over its last two.
- Missouri has lost four fumbles this season while Vanderbilt has let seven get away.
- In its last three games, Vanderbilt is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Missouri’s previous game was set at 59. The under cashed in the 38-17 victory over Florida.
- In its last three games, Missouri is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Commodores offense has recorded six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Tigers have put up 12 such plays.
- The Vanderbilt defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Missouri has given up 14 such plays.
- The Vanderbilt offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Missouri has created 12 such runs.
- The Commodores defense has allowed 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Tigers have given up six such runs.
- The Vanderbilt defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 15 times this year. Missouri has recorded 14 sacks.
