NCAA Football Free ATS Pick: Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Stanford Cardinal

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The No. 23 Stanford Cardinal are getting 14.5 points when they take on the No. 15 Notre Dame Fighting Irish to Stanford Stadium. This afternoon game is scheduled to begin at 4:00 p.m. ET and fans can watch the action live on FOX.

Betting Preview: Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Stanford Cardinal

In this Saturday game, Notre Dame is getting picked as the big favorite and is currently giving up 14.5 points. The Fighting Irish are also receiving -750 moneyline odds while the Cardinal are +510. If one program can find paydirt early it’ll create a worthy betting scenario in-game. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 51 points.

The Fighting Irish have gained 4.0 units so far and are 7-4 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have recorded an O/U mark of 4-7.

The Cardinal have lost 2.1 units this season. The team is 3-8 ATS and owns an O/U record of 7-4.

The Fighting Irish have gone 9-2 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Cardinal are 4-7 SU.

Notre Dame enters this matchup on a zero-game winless skid while Stanford has won zero in a row. The Fighting Irish are coming off a resounding 40-7 victory over Boston College last week where Ian Book completed 26 passes for 239 yards and three touchdowns. Tony Jones Jr. (61 yards on 15 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Book (66 yards on 12 carries) led the ground attack. Chris Finke (seven receptions, 71 yards, one TD) and Cole Kmet (seven catches, 78 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.

Stanford just dropped a 24-20 game to California. Davis Mills completed 26-of-35 passes for 283 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Cameron Scarlett (31 rushing yards on 12 attempts, one TD) handled the running game as Michael Wilson (six receptions, 63 yards) and Osiris St. Brown (five catches, 34 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.

Notre Dame has run the ball on 52.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Stanford has an overall rush percentage of 44.5 percent. The Fighting Irish have produced 175.4 rush yards/game and have 17 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Cardinal are putting up 104.4 rushing yards per game and have seven total rush TDs.

Judging by the numbers this season, it appears that the Fighting Irish might have an edge when it comes to efficiency in the ground game. Their running backs has generated 4.8 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.9 YPC to opponents. The Cardinal have registered 3.6 yards per carry and given up a YPC of 4.4 to opponents.

The Irish offense has averaged 252.4 yards in the air overall and has 32 passing scores so far. The Cardinal have recorded 260.5 pass yards per contest and have 16 total pass TDs.

Notre Dame should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s allowed opponents to run for an average of 164.5 yards and pass for 153.5 yards per game. The Stanford defense has allowed 281.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 147.2 yards per game to opposing runners. The Irish are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.07 to opponents, while the Cardinal have given up a 7.36 ANY/A.

Offensively, Book is up to 2,248 passing yards this season. He’s completed 189-of-321 attempts with 24 passing scores and only six interceptions. He has a 7.16 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 11.07 over the past two games.

For the home team, Davis Mills has completed 97-of-145 passes for 1,173 yards, six TDs and three INTs. Mills’ ANY/A stands at 7.29 for the season and 7.39 over his last two games.

These two teams faced off last year with the final outcome being a 38-17 win for Notre Dame.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Stanford Cardinal Free Pick

SU Winner: Stanford, ATS Winner: Stanford, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

  • The Notre Dame defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 28 times this year. Stanford has recorded 26 sacks.
  • Stanford has lost three fumbles this season while Notre Dame has lost five.
  • The Fighting Irish offense has recorded seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Cardinal have accounted for eight such plays.
  • The Notre Dame defense has allowed four pass plays of 40+ yards, while Stanford has given up five such plays.
  • The Notre Dame offense has created 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Stanford has created five such runs.
  • The Fighting Irish defense has allowed 16 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Cardinal have given up 11 such runs.
  • The O/U for Stanford’s last match was 43. The over cashed in the 24-20 loss to California.
  • Over its last three games, Stanford is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
  • Over its last three contests, Notre Dame is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • Notre Dame has won eight of its last nine games SU, with a 31-point defeat to Michigan on October 26th accounting for the only loss over that span.
  • Stanford has lost five of its last six games SU, with a 10-point win over Arizona on October 26th representing the only victory over that span.
  • The O/U for Notre Dame’s previous game was set at 66.5. The under cashed in the team’s 40-7 victory over Boston College.
  • Notre Dame has produced 5.5 yards per carry over its last three games and 4.8 over its last two.
  • Stanford has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 2.0 over its past two.