A couple of schools that prefer to run the football, Head Coach Bryan Harsin and the No. 19 Boise State Broncos (-28) are set to take the field against the New Mexico Lobos at Albertsons Stadium. Kickoff is fairly late for fans on the East Coast (10:15 p.m. ET) and ESPN2 is scheduled to televise the action.
Betting Preview: New Mexico Lobos at Boise State Broncos
Boise State has been tabbed as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 28 points to New Mexico. If the Broncos fall behind early it’ll result in a worthy betting opportunity in-game. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 60 points.
The opening line was -27 while the O/U has yet to move since it was set initially at 60.
The Lobos are down 4.0 units so far and 3-6 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 4-5.
The surprising Broncos are up 4.1 units this season. They’re 5-4 ATS and have an O/U record of 5-4.
The Lobos have gone only 2-7 straight up (SU), including 0-5 SU against conference opponents. The Broncos are 8-1 SU overall and 5-0 SU in conference play.
These two programs faced off a year ago with the final outcome being a 45-14 victory for Boise State.
Boise State enters this matchup on a six-game losing streak while New Mexico has won its last two in a row. The Lobos are most-recently reeling from a 21-10 defeat to Nevada on November 2 where their secondary allowed the Wolf Pack to air it out for 305 yards and two touchdowns. Romeo Doubs was unstoppable for the Wolf Pack in that one with 167 yards and a score on 11 catches. On the offensive side, Tevaka Salanoa-Tuioti completed just 19-of-36 passes for 237 yards. Ahmari Davis (80 rushing yards on 15 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground attack. Marcus Williams (six receptions, 74 yards) and Emmanuel Logan-Greene (four catches, 54 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Boise State just earned a 20-17 win over Wyoming. The defense allowed the Cowboys to run for 123 yards on 44 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Xazavian Valladay was a bright spot in the loss for Wyoming, recording 124 rushing yards and a score on 37 attempts. For Boise State, Chase Cord completed 19-of-30 passes for 190 yards, one touchdown and one interception. George Holani (30 rushing yards on 11 attempts) and the signal-caller Cord (15 yards on 10 carries) led the running game while Khalil Shakir (seven receptions, 70 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
New Mexico’s run the ball on 57.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Boise State has an overall rush percentage of 53.6 percent. The Lobos have rushed for 200.2 yards per game (including 195.8 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 16 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Broncos are averaging 168.6 rushing yards per game (164.8 in conference) and have 19 total rush TDs.
The Lobos offensive scheme has tallied 218.7 yards/game through the air overall (196.6 per game against conference opposition) and has nine passing scores so far. The Broncos have produced 280.2 pass yards per game (261 against MWC competition) and have 19 total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, New Mexico has allowed 149.7 rush yards and 340.4 pass yards per game. The Boise State D has allowed 226.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 117.0 yards per game on the ground. The Broncos are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.13 to opposing QBs, while the Lobos have allowed a whopping 9.20 ANY/A.
Bachmeier likely has the advantage over Salanoa-Tuioti in this matchup. The Broncos man under center has an adjusted net yards per pass attempt 8.01 for the year and 7.30 over his last two outings while Salanoa-Tuioti’s ANY/A is 6.66 and 5.56 over his last two.
New Mexico Lobos vs. Boise State Broncos Betting Pick
SU Winner: Boise State, ATS Winner: New Mexico, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The Boise State defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs 25 times this season. New Mexico has recorded 20 sacks.
- Both offenses have lost six fumbles this year.
- The Lobos offense has produced nine pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Broncos have accounted for eight such plays.
- The New Mexico defense has allowed 17 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Boise State has given up seven such plays.
- The New Mexico offense has created 16 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Boise State has created 10 such runs.
- The Lobos defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Broncos have given up eight such runs.
- The Over/Under for Boise State’s previous game was set at 47.5. The under cashed in the 20-17 win over Wyoming.
- Over its last three matches, Boise State is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Over its last three contests, New Mexico is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- New Mexico has lost eight of its last nine games SU, with a three-point victory over New Mexico State on September 21st representing the only win over that stretch.
- The O/U for New Mexico’s last game was set at 58. The under cashed in the team’s 21-10 loss to Nevada.
- New Mexico, as a team, has produced 5.0 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.3 over its last two.
- Boise State has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.4 over its last two.
