The No. 18 Memphis Tigers (-14) are flying south to face their in-conference counterpart South Florida Bulls at Raymond James Stadium. ESPNU is scheduled to have the TV rights and this afternoon matchup starts at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Memphis Tigers vs. South Florida Bulls
In this Saturday American Athletic Conference game, Memphis is tabbed as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 14 points. The Tigers are also receiving -735 moneyline odds while the Bulls are +500. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 60. With the Bulls currently gaining 14 points, oddsmakers are thinking this has the feel of a 23-37 victory for the Tigers. If one side can create a bunch of points early, it will likely create a nice in-game betting scenario.
The profitable Tigers have gained 5.2 units so far and are 7-3 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 8-2.
The Bulls have lost 2.5 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-4 ATS and have an even O/U record of 5-5.
The Tigers are 9-1 straight up (SU), including 5-1 SU against AAC opponents. The Bulls are 4-6 SU overall and 2-4 SU in conference play.
Memphis enters this matchup on a zero-game winless skid while South Florida has won zero in a row. The Tigers are coming off a resounding 45-27 victory over Houston last week in which Brady White completed 22 passes for 341 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. Kenneth Gainwell (99 yards on 17 rush attempts) led the running attack while Kedarian Jones (six receptions, 60 yards) and Calvin Austin III (five catches, 81 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the win.
On November 16, Cincinnati took care of this South Florida team by a score of 20-17. The Bulls defense let the Bearcats kill the clock by rushing for 200 yards on 48 attempts, including two rush TDs. Michael Warren II was outstanding, recording 134 rushing yards and a score on 26 attempts for the Bearcats. For South Florida, Jordan McCloud completed 18-of-27 passes for 267 yards and one touchdown. Jordan Cronkrite (78 rushing yards on 20 attempts) and Kelley Joiner Jr. (72 yards on 13 carries) mounted the running game as Mitchell Wilcox (five receptions, 29 yards, one TD) and Eddie McDoom (three catches, 53 yards) led the receiving attack in the loss.
Each team has a strikingly similar (56-44) run-pass ratio on the season. Having said that, the Tigers have rushed for 183.3 yards/game (including 144.3 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 21 scores on the ground this year. The Bulls haven’t been quite as successful, as they’re totaling 167.6 rush yards per game (182.7 in conference) and have 13 total rushing TDs.
Judging by the results this season, it appears that the Tigers ought to have an edge in all aspects of the ground game, since their backfield has produced 4.9 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 4.1 to opponents. The Bulls have recorded 4.5 yards per carry and allowed 4.2 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Tigers offensive scheme has tallied 297.7 yards/game in the air overall (323.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 28 passing TDs so far. The Bulls have put up 187.5 pass yards per contest (210 in the AAC) and have 18 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, Memphis has allowed 170.6 rush yards and 210.3 pass yards per game. The South Florida defense has given up 173.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 194.6 yards per game on the ground. The Bulls are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.74 to opponents, while the Tigers have allowed a 5.83 ANY/A.
Offensively, White is up to 2,502 passing yards this year, and has completed 167-of-243 attempts with 25 scores through the air and only five interceptions. White’s got a pristine 10.54 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 11.01 over the last two games.
Antonio Gibson, Damonte Coxie and Kenneth Gainwell have combined to account for 773 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns over the last two outings.
In the other locker room, Jordan McCloud has managed to complete 87-of-151 passes for 1,043 yards, 11 TDs and six INTs. McCloud’s ANY/A stands at 5.31 for the year and 6.13 over his last two outings.
Kelley Joiner Jr. (212 rushing yards, 76 receiving yards this season), Jordan Cronkrite (666 rush yards, four rush TDs, 97 receiving yards) and Xavier Weaver (107 receiving yards) have combined for 361 total yards the last couple of games.
These two AAC foes did not get a chance to play one another last year.
Memphis Tigers at South Florida Bulls Free Pick
SU Winner: Memphis, ATS Winner: Memphis, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- South Florida has lost eight fumbles this season while Memphis has let nine get away.
- The South Florida D has sacked opposing QBs 27 times this year. Memphis has produced 22 sacks.
- Memphis has produced 4.7 yards per carry across its past three games and 4.2 over its last two.
- South Florida has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and 2.8 over its past two.
- South Florida has lost four of its last five games SU, with a 25-point win over East Carolina on October 26th accounting for its lone victory over that stretch.
