NCAA Football Free ATS Pick: Colorado Buffaloes at Washington Huskies

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Two schools that prefer running the football, Coach Chris Petersen and the No. 15 Washington Huskies (-15) are ready to face off against their in-conference rival Colorado Buffaloes at Alaska Airlines Field at Husky Stadium. This vital afternoon game is scheduled to get underway at 3:30 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to FOX.

Betting Preview: Washington Huskies vs. Colorado Buffaloes

In this Saturday Pac-12 game, Washington is labeled as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 15 points. The Buffaloes are also receiving +550 moneyline odds while the Huskies are -840. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 51.5 points. Multiple decent live betting opportunities may exist during this game.

The opening line was originally -17 and the total was initially pegged at 51, so the early action has moved toward the Buffaloes.

The surprising Buffaloes have gained 3.4 units this season and are 4-2 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 0-5.

The Huskies have gained 0.3 units for moneyline bettors so far. They’re 2-5 ATS and have an O/U record of 1-6.

The Buffaloes have gone 5-1 straight up (SU), including 2-1 SU against Pac-12 opponents. The Huskies are 5-2 SU overall and 3-1 SU in conference play.

The Buffaloes fell to USC 31-20 in a matchup where their defense let the Trojans air it out for 272 yards and three touchdowns. Michael Pittman Jr. was unstoppable for the Trojans in that one with 144 yards and two touchdowns on five catches. Offensively, Steven Montez completed only 26 passes on 47 attempts for 170 yards and one interception. Travon McMillian (32 yards on 18 rush attempts) led the ground attack in the loss. Laviska Shenault Jr. (nine receptions, 72 yards) and K.D. Nixon (six catches, 36 yards) handled the receiving duties.

One game ago, Oregon knocked off this Washington team by a score of 30-27. The Huskies defensive unit allowed the Ducks to eat up the clock by running for 177 yards on 49 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Dillon Mitchell had a productive showing in the win for Oregon, accounting for 119 yards on eight catches. For Washington, Jake Browning completed 15-of-25 passes for 243 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Myles Gaskin (69 rushing yards on 15 attempts) and Salvon Ahmed (61 yards on 11 carries, two TDs) handled the ground game in the defeat as Drew Sample (four receptions, 79 yards) and Sean McGrew (two catches, 34 yards) led the pass-catching attack.

Colorado has run the ball on 55.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Washington has an overall rush percentage of 58.7 percent. The Buffaloes have rushed for 180.5 yards per game (including 156.7 per game versus Pac-12 opponents) and have 16 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Huskies are averaging 174.0 rush yards per game (183.5 in conference) and have 14 total rushing TDs.

The Buffaloes offense has tallied 272.5 yards/contest through the air overall (255.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 11 passing scores so far. The Huskies have produced 267.9 pass yards per contest (216 against Pac-12 foes) and also have 11 total pass TDs.

Defensively, Colorado has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 138.7 yards and throw for 212.8 yards per game. The Washington defense has allowed 178.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 136.6 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Buffaloes have given up an ANY/A of 5.32 to opposing QBs, while the Huskies are yielding an ANY/A of 5.07.

Offensively, Montez is up to 1,262 passing yards this year, and has connected on 70 percent of his 167 attempts with nine passing scores and three interceptions. He’s got a 6.72 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.46 over the last two games.

Jake Browning has connected on 108-of-165 passes for 1,486 yards, nine TDs and five INTs for Washington. His ANY/A sits at 7.94 for the season and 8.11 across his last two outings.

These two teams faced off last year with the final result being a 37-10 victory for Washington.

Colorado Buffaloes at Washington Huskies NCAA Prediction

SU Winner: Washington, ATS Winner: Washington, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

  • The Colorado D has sacked opposing QBs 16 times this year. Washington has produced just nine sacks.
  • The Washington offense has lost two fumbles in 2018 while Colorado has lost one.
  • The Buffaloes offense has recorded eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Huskies have accounted for six such plays.
  • The Colorado defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Washington has given up zero such plays.
  • The Colorado offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Washington has created 11 such runs.
  • The Buffaloes defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Huskies have given up three such runs.
  • The Over/Under for Washington’s previous match going into it was 58.5. The under cashed in the 30-27 loss to Oregon.
  • Over its last three games, Washington is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
  • In its last three matchups, Colorado is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
  • The O/U for Colorado’s previous game was set at 57.5. The under cashed in the team’s 31-20 loss to USC.
  • Colorado, as a team, has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.2 over its last two.
  • Washington has averaged 4.2 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.9 over its last two.