In a battle featuring two teams that prefer to deploy their running games, Head Coach Philip Montgomery and the Tulsa Golden Hurricane (-5.5) will be taking on their conference rival East Carolina Pirates at Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium. This daytime game is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 p.m. ET and interested parties can watch the action on ESPNU.
Betting Preview: East Carolina Pirates vs. Tulsa Golden Hurricane
East Carolina is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 5.5 points in this Saturday AAC game. The Golden Hurricane are also receiving -235 moneyline odds while the Pirates are +185. If one squad can catch a lucky break in the early stages it’ll create a nice betting scenario in-game. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 61 points.
The line opened at 5 while the total hasn’t changed since it opened at 61.
The Golden Hurricane are down 1.7 units so far in 2019 and 6-5 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 4-7.
The Pirates are down 0.7 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-5 ATS and also have an O/U record of 4-7.
The Golden Hurricane are 3-8 straight up (SU), including 1-6 SU against conference opponents. The Pirates are 4-7 SU overall and 1-6 SU in conference play.
The Golden Hurricane will try to get back on track after a 24-14 loss to Houston last week. The passing attack could’ve been sharper as Zach Smith completed 29 passes for 381 yards, one score and two interceptions. As a team, the Golden Hurricane produced a grand total of -1 rushing yards in the defeat.
East Carolina just picked up a 31-24 win over Connecticut. The defensive secondary allowed the Huskies to air it out for 433 yards and three touchdowns. Cameron Ross was outstandingfor the Huskies, putting up 169 yards and two touchdowns on eight catches. For East Carolina, Holton Ahlers completed 34-of-50 passes for 374 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Darius Pinnix Jr. (105 yards on 27 rush attempts, two TDs) led the ground game in the win as Tyler Snead (16 receptions, 126 yards) and Blake Proehl (six catches, 49 yards) led the pass-catching corps.
When looking at offensive play-calling, each of these teams sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Tulsa has run the ball on 52.6 percent of its offensive possessions while East Carolina has an overall rush percentage of 51.0. The Golden Hurricane have produced 120.2 rush yards per game (including 128.3 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 16 scores via handoffs this year. The Pirates are totaling 147.4 rush yards per game (119.7 in conference) and have 12 total rushing TDs.
If 2019 results can translate to this game, then the Pirates should hold an edge when it comes to applying pressure, since their offensive line has yielded only 17 sacks while the D-line has logged 22 sacks. The Golden Hurricane offensive line has allowed 38 sacks and their defense has generated only 14 sacks.
The Golden Hurricane offensive scheme has tallied 276.8 yards/game through the air overall (288.1 per game versus conference opposition) and has 15 passing TDs so far. The Pirates have put up 287.1 pass yards per contest (330 against AAC foes) and have 19 total pass scores.
Tulsa appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 195.1 yards and throw for 200.7 yards per game. The East Carolina defense has allowed 255.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 195.9 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Golden Hurricane have given up an ANY/A of 6.90 to opposing QBs, while the Pirates are allowing an ANY/A of 7.17.
Offensively, Smith has put up 2,821 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 56 percent of his 385 attempts with 13 scores through the air and eight interceptions. Smith has a 5.89 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.72 over the last two games.
Holton Ahlers has connected on 205-of-352 passes for 2,581 yards, 12 TDs and 10 INTs for East Carolina. His ANY/A sits at 6.11 for the year and 9.57 across his last two games.
These two conference foes did not get a chance to play each other a year ago.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane vs. East Carolina Pirates NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Tulsa, ATS Winner: Tulsa, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- As a team, Tulsa has rushed for 2.3 yards per attempt over its past three games and 1.8 over its last two.
- East Carolina has averaged 3.6 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.0 over its last two.
- The East Carolina offense has lost six fumbles this season while Tulsa has lost nine.
- The Golden Hurricane offense has created 10 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Pirates have accounted for nine such plays.
- The Tulsa defense has allowed nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while East Carolina has given up 11 such plays.
- The Tulsa offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while East Carolina has created 17 such runs.
- The Golden Hurricane defense has allowed 21 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Pirates have given up 26 such runs.
- The East Carolina defense has tallied 22 sacks on the year while Tulsa has just 14.
