The Commodores of Vanderbilt (-21.5) are gearing up to host the No. 22 Missouri Tigers at Vanderbilt Stadium. Kickoff for this SEC game is set for 4:00 p.m. ET and fans can tune in to the action on SEC Network. When these two programs met last year, Missouri beat Vanderbilt 33-28.
Betting Preview: Missouri Tigers vs. Vanderbilt Commodores
Missouri is significantly favored here and is currently giving up 21.5 points to Vanderbilt. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 56.5 points, and if one program catches a lucky break early on, it will probably generate a nice live betting opportunity.
The game’s O/U was originally placed at 57.5, but the sharp action has pushed that number downward.
The Tigers are 4-2 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 6.5 units so far in 2019. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an Over-Under record of 2-4.
The Commodores have been a disappointment to moneyline bettors this season, losing 11.0 units. They’re 0-6 ATS and also have an O/U record of 2-4.
The Tigers have gone 5-1 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against conference opponents. The Commodores are 1-5 SU overall and 0-3 SU in conference play.
Missouri enters this contest on a zero-game winless streak while Vanderbilt has won each of its last zero. The Tigers are trying to keep things going after a solid 38-27 win over Ole Miss last week where Kelly Bryant completed 23-of-35 passes for 329 yards, along with a score and a pick. Larry Rountree III (126 rushing yards on 21 attempts, two TDs) and the signal-caller Bryant (14 yards on 10 carries) spearheaded the ground attack. Johnathon Johnson (eight receptions, 110 yards) and Albert Okwuegbunam (four catches, 60 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Vanderbilt just fell 34-10 to UNLV. The defense let the Rebels eat up the clock by running for 206 yards on 53 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Chad Magyar had a productive outing in the win for UNLV, posting 116 rushing yards and a score on 22 attempts. As a group, the Commodores collectively completed 16-of-41 passes for 140 yards and one interception. Riley Neal went 11-for-25 for 104 yards and one interception while Deuce Wallace was five-of-16 for 36 yards. Ke’Shawn Vaughn (140 yards on 15 rush attempts, one TD) led the running game while James Bostic (four receptions, 36 yards) and Keyon Brooks (three catches, four yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
Missouri has run the ball on 57.5 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Vanderbilt has a rush percentage of 41.5 percent. The Tigers have produced 199.5 rush yards per game (including 213.5 per game against Southeastern opponents) and have 11 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Commodores are putting up 124 rush yards per game (107.7 in conference) and have six total rushing TDs.
If 2019 results are any indication, then it appears the Tigers might be the more disruptive team in the trenches, as their offensive line has yielded just 13 sacks while the D-line logged 26 sacks. The Commodores O-line has allowed 22 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 22 times.
The Tigers offense has averaged 274.8 yards in the air overall (278 per game against conference opposition) and has 12 passing TDs so far. The Commodores have produced 214.8 pass yards per outing (180 in the SEC) and have four total pass scores.
Missouri seems to hold an advantage in both areas of the defense. The team has let opponents run for an average of 108 yards and pass for 154.7 yards per game. The Vanderbilt D has allowed 272.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 210.3 yards per game to opposing runners. The Tigers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.25 to opponents, while the Commodores have allowed an ugly 9.55 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Bryant is up to 1,354 yards this season. The signal-caller has connected on 65 percent of his 161 attempts with nine passing scores and four interceptions. He has a 7.75 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 10.16 over the past two games.
On the other sideline, Riley Neal has connected on 85-of-144 passes for 962 yards, four TDs and three INTs. Neal’s ANY/A stands at 5.36 for the year and 3.19 across his past two outings.
Missouri Tigers at Vanderbilt Commodores NCAA Tip
SU Winner: Vanderbilt, ATS Winner: Vanderbilt, O/U: Over
Betting Trends
- The Missouri defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 12 times this season. Vanderbilt has registered eight sacks.
- Vanderbilt has lost two fumbles this season while Missouri has lost four.
- The Tigers offense has recorded six pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Commodores have put up five such plays.
- The Missouri defense has allowed two pass plays of 40+ yards, while Vanderbilt has given up six such plays.
- Both teams have produced nine rushing plays of 20 yards or more. The Missouri offense has recorded 41 running plays of 10+ yards while Vanderbilt has accounted for 25 such plays.
- The Tigers defense has allowed four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Commodores have given up 12 such runs.
- The O/U for Vanderbilt’s previous outing going into it was 57.5. The under cashed in the 34-10 loss to UNLV.
- In its last three contests, Vanderbilt is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- Over its last three matchups, Missouri is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Missouri’s previous game was 56. The over cashed in the team’s 38-27 win over Ole Miss.
- Missouri has produced 4.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.0 over its last two.
- Vanderbilt has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and 4.7 over its past two.
