Jorge Polanco and the surging Minnesota Twins will take on the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park in a Thursday showdown. Fox Sports North is in line to televise this interleague showdown and the opening pitch is scheduled for 12:10 p.m. ET.
Minnesota Twins at Miami Marlins Odds
Las Vegas has Minnesota (-150) as the favorite over Miami (+140). You can play game’s total with current odds posted at -115 for over 8.5 runs and -105 for under 8.5. This game currently has a runline of Twins -1.5 (-105) and Marlins +1.5 (-115).
The Marlins are 55-50 against the spread (ATS), but only 41-65 straight up (SU). The team hasn’t moved the needle a whole lot for gamblers, losing 1.7 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 4.9 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in five of those seven. The Twins have gone 66-41 SU this year and are 57-49 ATS. Overall, the team’s gained 15.3 units for moneyline bettors and 4.5 units ATS. Minnesota is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.
Marlins games have a 45-53-7 over/under record in 2019. Minnesota has an over/under record of 52-49-5.
Michael Pineda will get the nod for the visiting Twins. The right-handed Pineda (7-5, 4.30 ERA) has racked up 100 strikeouts in 111 innings so far. He has yet to face the Marlins this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.
The Marlins are turning to righty Jordan Yamamoto (4-2, 3.64 ERA), who’s got 41 strikeouts and 22 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.02. Yamamoto did not pitch in the majors in 2018.
Minnesota’s pitching staff allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 3.80 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 8.38 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.41, along with a K/9 of 9.44.
The Twins offense has slashed .270/.339/.501 on its way to 5.7 runs scored per game this season, including 7.1 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 5.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (4-1 SU).
Minnesota’s hitters have been led by shortstop Jorge Polanco and outfielder Max Kepler, who have combined to belt 45 home runs. Polanco is slashing .299/.358/.502 with 16 home runs, 52 RBIs and 66 runs scored, while Kepler (.264/.339/.546) is up to 29 homers, 73 RBIs and 70 runs scored.
In the home-team dugout, Miami’s pitching staff has given up 4.6 runs per game overall this year. The team’s starters have a 4.14 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.69 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 9.4 K/9.
The Miami offense has put up 3.6 runs per contest, including 3.4 per game over its last 10 games and 4.6 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .235/.271/.395 over its last five games and is 2-3 SU during that stretch.
The Marlins’ batters have been led by first baseman Miguel Rojas and second baseman Starlin Castro. Rojas is hitting .288/.342/.379 with four home runs, 33 RBIs and 42 runs scored, and Castro’s line sits at .250/.277/.355 with eight homers, 43 RBIs and 30 runs.
The Twins have gained 17.7 units and are 43-38 ATS when facing a righty starter this season. The over has hit in 38 of those games, compared to 40 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Marlins have lost 1.0 units and are 37-39 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 29 of those games, compared to 42 that went under the total.
Twins vs. Marlins MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Twins, ATS Winner – Twins, O/U – UNDER
Betting Notes
- The under has cashed in three of Minnesota’s last seven games.
- The Twins have won five of their last six games SU.
- Minnesota has recorded 26.1 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 20.6 over its last five.
- The Twins have hit 28 home runs in their last 10 games. The Marlins have hit 11 over their last 10.
- The Twins have a team OPS of .840 this season and an OPS of .831 against right-handed pitchers. The Marlins’ OPS stands at .655 overall and .645 versus righties.
