Christian Yelich and the Milwaukee Brewers are traveling east to face their division rival Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The first pitch is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. ET and the matchup will be televised on ATPT and FSWI.
Milwaukee Brewers at Pittsburgh Pirates Odds
Milwaukee (-110) is hosting this one as the favorite over Pittsburgh (+100) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this night game at 9.5 runs. Odds for wagering on the game’s total sit at +100 for the under and -120 for the over. There’s a runline of Brewers -1.5 (+135) and Pirates +1.5 (-155) for this matchup.
The Brewers have gone 46-42 SU this year and are 40-47 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 2.8 units for moneyline gamblers and 11.1 units ATS. Milwaukee is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has hit in six of those seven. The Pirates, on the other hand, are 42-44 SU and 45-40 ATS. The team’s gained 6.4 units for moneyline bettors while gaining 2.4 units ATS. Pittsburgh has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven.
Pirates games have an over/under record of 48-33-4 so far in 2019. The Brewers have been a decent under bet with a total record of 37-47-3.
Zach Davies will get the start for the visiting Brewers. The right-handed Davies is 7-2 with a 3.24 ERA and 59 strikeouts. He’s 2-0 with eight strikeouts and a 2.95 ERA against Pittsburgh this year (three starts).
The Pirates will deploy lefty Steven Brault (3-1, 4.29 ERA) to the mound. Brault has 49 strikeouts and 30 walks as well as a 1.59 WHIP. Brault is 0-0 with 10 strikeouts and a 2.45 ERA across two starts against Milwaukee this year.
Milwaukee’s pitching staff allowed 4.8 runs per game and its starters own a 4.82 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 8.73 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.15, along with a K/9 of 9.88.
Brewers hitters have slashed .245/.327/.441 on their way to 4.8 runs scored per game in 2019, including 5.0 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Milwaukee’s hitters have been paced by outfielder Christian Yelich and second baseman Mike Moustakas, who’ve collectively launched 55 home runs. Yelich is slashing .328/.425/.712 with 31 home runs, 67 RBIs, 66 runs and 19 steals. Moustakas has a .266 average with 24 homers, 52 RBIs and 52 runs scored.
For the home team, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have yielded 5.3 runs per game overall this season. The team’s starters have a 4.93 ERA, 1.41 WHIP and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.92 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 9.8 K/9. In 33 games against divisional opponents, Pirates starters have an ERA of 4.64 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.16.
The Pittsburgh hitters have produced 4.7 runs per outing, including 4.6 per game against divisional foes and 6.6 per game over their last five. The team has hit .316/.361/.550 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that span.
First baseman Josh Bell and right fielder Starling Marte have led the Pirates’ batters this year. Bell is hitting .306/.377/.654 with 26 home runs, 81 RBIs and 67 runs scored, while Marte’s line sits at .283/.326/.469 with 12 homers, 41 RBIs, 53 runs and 13 stolen bases.
The Brewers have lost 4.6 units and are 11-14 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in eight of those games, as opposed to 16 that’ve gone under against lefties. On the other hand, the Pirates have netted 6.3 units and are 35-30 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 35 of those games, compared to 27 that’ve cashed the under.
Brewers vs. Pirates MLB Tip
Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Pirates, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- The over has hit in three of Pittsburgh’s last seven games.
- Milwaukee has recorded 15.2 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 14.4 over its last five.
- The Brewers have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including seven over their last five.
- The Brewers have an OPS of .769 this season and an OPS of .780 when facing left-handed pitchers. The Pirates’ OPS sits at .758 overall and .636 against southpaws.
