The red-hot New York Mets are seeking their ninth straight win as they play host to the Milwaukee Brewers at Citi Field. Fox Sports Net Wisconsin is in line to showcase this NL showdown and the first pitch will be at 7:10 p.m. ET.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets Odds
Oddsmakers have listed Milwaukee (+120) as the underdog to New York (-130). Gamblers can wager on the game’s total with odds sitting at -105 for over 8.5 runs and -115 for under 8.5. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds sitting at -175 for the Brewers +1.5 runs and +155 for the Mets -1.5 runs.
The Brewers are 7-6 SU and have gone 5-8 against the spread (ATS). They’ve accumulated 1.8 units for moneyline bettors this year, despite having lost 4.9 units ATS. Milwaukee is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has hit in four of those seven. The Mets are 10-1 SU and 10-1 ATS. The team’s gained 10.5 units for moneyline bettors and 11.1 units ATS. New York has covered the spread in each of its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.
Mets games have an over/under record of 5-6 thus far in 2018. The Brewers have an over/under record of 6-7.
The Brewers have gained 0.0 units and are 1-3 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in one of those games, compared to three that’ve gone under against right-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Mets have netted 7.0 units and are 7-1 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has hit in four of those games, compared to four that went under.
The right-handed Zach Davies (0-1, 5.40 ERA) will get the start for Milwaukee. Davies started 33 games last year and finished the season 17-9 overall with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He made two starts against the Mets in 2017 and put together a 1-0 record against them with a 5.40 ERA and three strikeouts.
The Mets are rolling with lefty Steven Matz (0-1, 3.00 ERA) as their starter. Matz started 13 games last year while finishing the season 2-7 overall with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP.
New York’s pitchers have allowed 2.8 runs per game overall this year as a unit. Its starters have an ERA of 3.17, a WHIP of 1.11 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 10.0. The bullpen has recorded a solid ERA of just 1.49, a WHIP of 1.09 and a K/9 of 10.8.
The New York hitters are putting up 5.0 runs per contest, including 5.0 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .214/.306/.370 over its last five contests and is 5-0 SU during that span.
Second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and right fielder Michael Conforto have led the Mets’ hitters so far. Cabrera is slashing .333/.388/.600 with 15 hits, five RBIs and 10 runs scored, and Conforto is batting .333 with six hits, three RBIs and five runs.
Cabrera seemed to have some trouble hitting at home in 2017, slashing .245/.315/.366 over 241 plate appearances (his overall season line was .280/.351/.434).
In the other dugout, Milwaukee’s pitching staff allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.66 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 7.13 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 2.72, along with a K-per-9 of 10.22.
The Brewers offense has slashed .240/.300/.371 on its way to 3.4 runs scored per game this season, including 2.7 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 2.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Milwaukee’s offensive production been led by Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar. Thames is slashing .263/.364/.711 with 10 hits, five homers, seven RBIs and eight runs scored, while Aguilar (.333/.500/.417) is up to four hits, zero RBIs and two runs scored.
Thames did not do especially well against lefty pitching on the road last season, maintaining a slash line of .176/.236/.353 across 55 such plate appearances (his total season line was .247/.359/.518).
Milwaukee Brewers vs. New York Mets Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- Both teams have hit 11 home runs over their last 10 outings.
- The Milwaukee defense has allowed 14 errors over the last 10 games, compared to eight errors for New York over its last 10.
