A matchup that showcases a couple of schools that are nationally ranked in the Top 16 overall, the No. 16 Michigan Wolverines (+8) are gearing up to pay a visit to their conference nemesis Penn State Nittany Lions (-8) at Beaver Stadium. The game will get underway at 7:30 p.m. ET and fans can watch the action on ABC.
Betting Preview: Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Michigan Wolverines
In this Saturday Big Ten game, Penn State has been projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 8 points. The Wolverines are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Nittany Lions are -330. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 45 points, and if one team catches a lucky break early on, it’ll likely create a reasonable live betting opportunity.
The Wolverines have gained 0.0 units so far and are 2-4 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 4-2.
The surprising Nittany Lions have gained 3.0 units this season. They’re 4-2 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-4.
The unblemished Wolverines have gone 5-1 straight up (SU), including 3-1 SU against Big 10 opponents. The Nittany Lions are 6-0 SU overall and are also 3-0 SU in conference play.
The Wolverines are coming off a resounding 42-25 win over Illinois last week where Shea Patterson completed just 11-of-22 passes for 194 yards and three touchdowns. Zach Charbonnet (116 rushing yards on 18 attempts, one TD) and Hassan Haskins (125 yards on 12 carries, one TD) led the running attack while Donovan Peoples-Jones (three receptions, 36 yards, one TD) and Ronnie Bell (three catches, 98 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
Penn State just earned a 17-12 win over Iowa. The defensive secondary allowed the Hawkeyes to air it out for 286 yards. Brandon Smith was a bright spot in the defeat, posting 86 yards on seven catches for Iowa. For Penn State, Sean Clifford completed 12-of-24 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown. Noah Cain (102 yards on 22 rush attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Clifford (52 yards on 16 carries) spearheaded the running attack while KJ Hamler (seven receptions, 61 yards, one TD) and Pat Freiermuth (two catches, 25 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
Looking at offensive play-calling, each team sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Michigan has run the ball on 56.1 percent of its offensive possessions while Penn State has an overall rush percentage of 57.0. The Wolverines have rushed for 156.2 yards/game (including 149 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 14 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Nittany Lions are totaling 191.2 rush yards per game (190.3 in conference) and have 18 total rushing TDs.
If the results so far this season are any indication, then it seems like the Nittany Lions should own an advantage in all aspects of the ground game, since their running backs has logged 4.8 yards per carry while the defense is allowing 1.6 YPC to opponents. The Wolverines have recorded 4.1 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 3.0 to opponents.
The Wolverines offensive scheme has logged 231.2 yards per contest through the air overall (233.8 per game against conference opposition) and has 10 passing scores so far. The Nittany Lions have put up 274.2 pass yards per game (267 in the Big 10) and have 14 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Michigan seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 122.8 rush yards and 160.5 pass yards per game. The Penn State defense has allowed 205.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 53.8 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Wolverines have given up an ANY/A of 3.73 to opposing QBs, while the Nittany Lions are allowing an ANY/A of 3.84.
Offensively, Patterson has put up 1,099 passing yards this year. He’s connected on 78-of-135 attempts with nine passing scores and only two interceptions. Patterson’s got a 7.79 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 6.82 over the last two outings.
In the home locker room, Sean Clifford has completed 82-of-130 passes for 1,296 yards, 10 TDs and one INT. Clifford’s ANY/A sits at 10.11 for the year and 6.89 over his last two outings.
When these two teams met last year, Michigan won by five touchdowns 42-7.
Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Penn State, ATS Winner: Penn State, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Penn State defense has notched 27 sacks on the year while Michigan has just 18.
- The Penn State offense has lost four fumbles in 2019 while Michigan has let nine get away.
- The Wolverines offense has registered four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Nittany Lions have put up nine such plays.
- The Michigan defense has allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards, while Penn State has given up four such plays.
- The Michigan offense has created four rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Penn State has created nine such runs.
- The Wolverines defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Nittany Lions have given up three such runs.
- The O/U for Penn State’s last outing going into it was 44. The under cashed in the 17-12 triumph over Iowa.
- In its last three matches, Penn State is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- In its last three matchups, Michigan is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Michigan’s last game was 49.5. The over cashed in the team’s 42-25 victory over Illinois.
- Michigan has averaged 4.6 yards per carry across its past three games and 5.1 over its last two.
- Penn State has averaged 4.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.8 over its past two.
