Miguel Rojas and the struggling Miami Marlins will be taking the field versus their divisional rival New York Mets at Citi Field in a Wednesday night game. SportsNet New York will broadcast the matchup. The first pitch will be at 12:10 p.m. ET.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets Odds
Bookmakers have Miami (+180) as the underdog to New York (-190). If you’re thinking this game’s total is going to go under 8.5 runs, then bookmakers are currently offering +105 odds. Picking the over will give you -125 odds. There’s a runline of Marlins +1.5 (-125) and Mets -1.5 (+105) for this matchup.
The Mets are 58-56 straight up (SU) and 59-55 against the spread (ATS). The team has lost 5.6 units for moneyline bettors and 2.8 units ATS. New York has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total went over in four of those seven. The Marlins have gone 42-70 SU this year and are 57-55 against the spread. In total, the club has lost 6.2 units for gamblers taking the moneyline and 8.2 units ATS. Miami’s covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the total has gone over in five of those seven.
New York games have a 60-44-10 over/under record in 2019. Miami has an over/under record of 50-54-8.
The right-handed Jordan Yamamoto will get the start for the visiting Marlins. Yamamoto (4-2, 3.94 ERA) has recorded 49 strikeouts in 48 innings so far. He has yet to face the Mets this year and did not record a start against them in 2018, either.
The Mets are sending lefty Steven Matz (6-7, 4.60 ERA) to the mound. Matz has 97 strikeouts and 32 walks as well as a WHIP of 1.40. Matz is 0-1 with nine strikeouts and a 3.00 ERA across two starts against Miami this year.
Miami’s pitching staff allowed 4.6 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 4.28 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 8.33 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.64, along with a K-per-9 of 9.50.
Marlins hitters have slashed .238/.296/.364 on their way to 3.6 runs scored per game in 2019, including 3.4 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (0-5 SU).
Miami’s offensive production has been led by first baseman Miguel Rojas and second baseman Starlin Castro. Rojas is slashing .289/.344/.384 with four home runs, 33 RBIs and 44 runs scored, while Castro has a .247 average with nine homers, 46 RBIs and 33 runs scored.
In the home-team dugout, New York’s pitching staff has allowed 4.7 runs per game overall this year. The club’s starters have an ERA of 4.04, a WHIP of 1.25 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.2. The bullpen has a 5.12 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 50 divisional games, Mets starters have an ERA of 4.59 and the bullpen’s ERA is 5.39.
The New York offense is putting up 4.8 runs per contest, including 4.9 per game against divisional foes and 7.2 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .291/.371/.581 over its last five games and is 5-0 SU during that span.
The Mets’ hitters have been led by left fielder Jeff McNeil and shortstop Amed Rosario. McNeil is slashing .340/.406/.533 with 14 home runs, 50 RBIs and 64 runs scored, and Rosario’s line is .281/.321/.445 with 12 homers, 48 RBIs, 54 runs and 14 steals.
The Marlins have lost 0.7 units and are 18-11 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this year. The over has cashed in 16 of those games, as opposed to 11 that’ve gone under against lefty starters. On the other hand, the Mets have lost 4.8 units and are 43-45 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 47 of those games, as opposed to 33 that’ve cashed the under.
Marlins vs. Mets MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- The under has cashed in just two of New York’s last seven games.
- The Marlins have lost seven of their last eight games SU while the Mets have taken 12 of their last 13.
- Miami has posted 19.8 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 18.4 over its last five.
- The Marlins have hit 11 home runs in their last 10 games. The Mets have hit 16 over their last 10.
- The Marlins have a team OPS of .659 this season and an OPS of .673 against left-handed pitchers. The Mets’ OPS sits at .761 overall and .790 against lefties.
