The Miami Marlins are paying a visit to Atlanta to take on their NL East nemesis Braves at SunTrust Park. Fox SportsNet Florida will showcase the matchup. The opening pitch is scheduled for 7:20 p.m. ET.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Odds
Atlanta (-310) is the huge favorite against Miami (+255) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this night game at 9.5 runs (-120 for the over and +100 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s runline with the current odds sitting at +125 for the Marlins +1.5 runs and -145 for the Braves -1.5.
The Marlins are 45-78 SU and have gone 62-61 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 8.2 units for moneyline gamblers and 8.3 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Braves, on the other hand, are 74-52 SU and 60-66 ATS. The team has gained 11.3 units for moneyline bettors while earning 4.9 units ATS. Atlanta has covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in three of those seven.
Atlanta games have a 64-54-8 over/under record in 2019. The Marlins have an over/under record of 57-56-10.
Right-hander Elieser Hernandez is the projected starter for the visiting Marlins. Hernandez is 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA and 55 strikeouts. He’s 1-0 with nine strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Atlanta this year.
The Braves will turn to lefty Dallas Keuchel (3-5, 4.39 ERA), who has 53 strikeouts and 22 walks, along with a 1.34 WHIP. Keuchel is 1-1 with eight strikeouts and an 8.18 ERA across two starts against Miami this year.
As a unit, Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.9 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starters have a 4.43 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.47 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 9.2 K/9. In 53 divisional games, Braves starters have an ERA of 4.81 and the bullpen’s ERA is 4.45.
Atlanta’s offense is putting up 5.4 runs per contest, including 5.8 per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over its last five. The team has slashed .252/.322/.472 over its last five contests and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.
The Braves’ hitters have been led by left fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. and second baseman Ozzie Albies. Acuna Jr. is slashing .296/.376/.537 with 35 home runs, 85 RBIs, 104 runs and 29 stolen bases, and Albies has put up a line of .296/.352/.498 with 18 homers, 68 RBIs, 78 runs and 11 stolen bases.
For the visitors, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 4.9 runs per game and its starters own a 4.40 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.30 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.13, along with a K-per-9 of 9.44.
Marlins hitters have slashed .241/.299/.367 on their way to 3.7 runs scored per game in 2019, including 3.6 runs per game against divisional foes and 4.8 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).
Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson continue to lead Miami’s hitters. Castro is hitting .260/.284/.379 with 11 home runs, 58 RBIs and 41 runs scored, while Anderson is hitting .259/.338/.469 with 20 homers, 65 RBIs and 55 runs scored.
The Marlins have lost 1.0 units and are 19-13 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 18 of those games, compared to 11 that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 5.8 units and are 45-52 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over has cashed in 49 of those games, compared to 43 that’ve gone under.
Marlins at Braves Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- The under has cashed in only two of Miami’s last seven games.
- The Marlins have a total OPS of .666 this season, including an OPS of .679 against left-handed pitchers. The Braves’ OPS sits at .800 overall and .794 against lefties.
- The Marlins have lost six of their last seven games SU.
- Miami has recorded 23.7 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 21.2 over its last five.
- The Marlins have hit eight home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 17 over their last 10.
