The Miami Marlins will take the field against their divisional rival Atlanta Braves in a Saturday showdown. Fox SportsNet Florida will be airing the matchup and the first pitch is scheduled for 4:10 p.m. ET.
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Odds
Miami (+180) is entering this game as the underdog against Atlanta (-190) and oddsmakers have put the Over/Under for this one at 10 runs (-115 for the over and -105 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the most recent runline odds standing at Marlins +1.5 runs (-125) and Braves -1.5 runs (+105).
The Braves are 53-36 straight up (SU) and 43-45 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 11.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 0.1 units ATS. Atlanta has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Marlins are 32-54 SU and have gone 41-44 against the spread. Overall, the club has lost 2.1 units for moneyline bettors and 12.4 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the under has hit in three of those seven.
Atlanta games have had an over/under record of 48-35-5 thus far in 2019. Miami has an over/under record of 38-42-5.
Caleb Smith will get the nod for the visiting Marlins. The left-handed Smith is 3-4 with a 3.41 ERA and 82 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with seven strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA against Atlanta this year.
The Braves are countering with Max Fried (9-3, 4.04 ERA). Fried has 90 punchouts and 28 walks, along with a WHIP of 1.36. Fried is 0-0 with seven strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA in one start against Miami this year.
As a unit, Atlanta’s pitching staff has given up 4.8 runs per game overall in 2019. The team’s starters have an ERA of 4.55, a WHIP of 1.38 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.9. The bullpen has a 3.75 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. In 34 games against NL East foes, Braves starters have an ERA of 4.73 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.42.
Atlanta’s hitters are putting up 5.4 runs per contest, including 5.7 per game against divisional foes and 5.4 per game over their last five. The team has a slash-line of .250/.320/.494 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.
The Braves’ offense has been led by first baseman Freddie Freeman and outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr.. Freeman is hitting .309/.394/.590 with 23 home runs, 66 RBIs and 68 runs scored, while Acuna Jr.’s line sits at .291/.373/.500 with 20 homers, 52 RBIs, 66 runs and 13 stolen bases.
For the visiting squad, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starters own a 3.88 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.19 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.98, along with a WHIP of 1.24.
Marlins hitters have slashed .239/.298/.355 on their way to 3.5 runs scored per game this year, including 3.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (0-5 SU).
Miami’s offensive production has been fueled by first baseman Miguel Rojas and second baseman Starlin Castro. Rojas is hitting .292/.351/.369 with 86 hits, 26 RBIs and 31 runs scored. Castro (.237/.265/.322) is up to 81 hits, 33 RBIs and 22 runs scored.
The Marlins have lost 2.0 units and are 12-9 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has hit in 12 of those games, compared to eight that’ve gone under against left-handed starting pitchers. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 6.0 units and are 9-10 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in 12 of those games, as opposed to six which went under the total.
Marlins vs. Braves Free MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
Betting Notes
- The over has hit in three of Miami’s last seven games.
- The Marlins have an OPS of .653 this season, including an OPS of .644 against left-handed pitchers. The Braves’ OPS sits at .802 overall and .805 against lefties.
- Atlanta has posted 21.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 contests and 21.8 over its last five.
- The Marlins have hit five home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 18 over their last 10.
