Miguel Rojas and the Miami Marlins are ready to do battle against their divisional rival Atlanta Braves at SunTrust Park in a Sunday matinee. The game gets underway 1:20 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida will be televising the matchup.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Odds
Las Vegas has Miami (+182) as the underdog to Atlanta (-195). The total currently stands at 9.5 runs and bettors can play the over or the under for -110. There’s a runline of Marlins +1.5 (-120) and Braves -1.5 (+100) for this matchup.
The Marlins have gone just 33-54 SU this year and are 42-44 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 3.1 units for moneyline bettors and 11.4 units ATS. Miami’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone under in four of those seven. The Braves, on the other hand, are 53-37 SU and 43-46 ATS. They’ve gained 12.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline while earning 1.1 units ATS. Atlanta has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven games and the under has cashed in four of those seven.
Braves games have an over/under record of 48-36-5 thus far in 2019. The Marlins have an over/under record of 38-43-5.
Trevor Richards will get the start for the visiting Marlins. The right-handed Richards (3-9, 4.02 ERA) has recorded 83 strikeouts in 94 innings so far. He’s 0-1 with eight strikeouts and a 0.79 ERA against Atlanta this year (two starts).
The Braves are turning to lefty Dallas Keuchel (1-2, 4.08 ERA), who’s got eight strikeouts and five walks as well as a WHIP of 1.47. Keuchel has yet to face the Marlins this year and did not register a start against them in 2018.
Miami’s pitchers have allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starters own a 3.89 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 8.20 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.93, along with a WHIP of 1.24.
The Marlins offense has slashed .240/.299/.358 on its way to 3.6 runs scored per game in 2019, including 3.5 runs per game against divisional foes and 2.0 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).
Miami’s hitters have been led by first baseman Miguel Rojas and second baseman Starlin Castro. Rojas is hitting .293/.351/.373 with 88 hits, 26 RBIs and 31 runs scored. Castro (.242/.270/.334) has produced 84 hits, 34 RBIs and 24 runs scored.
In the other dugout, Atlanta’s pitchers have allowed 4.8 runs per game overall in 2019. The club’s starting pitching staff has a 4.59 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 8.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 3.71 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 9.5 K/9. In 35 divisional games, Braves starters have an ERA of 4.85 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.33.
Atlanta’s offense has produced 5.4 runs per contest, including 5.7 per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over its last five. The team has a slash-line of .247/.311/.519 over its last five matchups and is 3-2 SU during that stretch.
First baseman Freddie Freeman and outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr. have led the Braves’ hitters this year. Freeman is hitting .309/.393/.586 with 23 home runs, 67 RBIs and 68 runs scored, and Acuna Jr.’s line is .291/.371/.506 with 21 homers, 53 RBIs, 67 runs and 13 stolen bases.
The Marlins have lost 2.0 units and are 12-9 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 12 of those games, as opposed to eight that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Braves have netted 6.8 units and are 34-36 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 36 of those games, compared to 30 that went under the total.
Marlins at Braves Free Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Braves, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- The over has hit in just two of Miami’s last seven games.
- Miami has posted 22.5 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 20.0 over its last five.
- The Marlins have hit seven home runs in their last 10 games. The Braves have hit 18 over their last 10.
- The Marlins have an OPS of .657 this season, including an OPS of .662 when facing left-handed pitchers. The Braves’ OPS stands at .802 overall and .808 against southpaws.
