Starlin Castro and the slumping Miami Marlins are heading north to take on the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. This NL showdown begins at 7:05 p.m. ET and you can catch the game on both ATPT and FSFL.
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Odds
Sportsbooks have Miami (+160) as the underdog to Pittsburgh (-170). You can play game’s total with current odds posted at even money (+100) for over 9 runs and -120 for under 9. This game currently has a runline of Marlins +1.5 (-135) and Pirates -1.5 (+115).
The Marlins are 48-88 SU and are 67-69 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 13.3 units for moneyline bettors and 12.2 units ATS. Miami has covered the spread only twice over its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven. The Pirates, on the other hand, are 60-77 SU and 68-69 ATS. The team has lost 6.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 17.2 units ATS. Pittsburgh has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the over has hit in four of those seven.
Pittsburgh games have a 77-54-6 over/under record in 2019. The Marlins have an over/under record of 63-63-10.
Sandy Alcantara will get the nod for the visiting Marlins. The right-handed Alcantara is 4-12 with a 4.22 ERA and 116 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with six strikeouts and a 4.50 ERA against Pittsburgh this year.
The Pirates are turning to righty Mitch Keller (1-3, 8.62 ERA), who has 41 strikeouts and 12 walks as well as a 1.98 WHIP. Keller has yet to face the Marlins this year and did not accrue any MLB pitching stats last season.
Miami’s pitchers have allowed 5.0 runs per game and its starters own a 4.61 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 8.30 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 5.04, along with a K/9 of 9.31.
Marlins hitters have slashed .239/.298/.368 on their way to 3.7 runs scored per game in 2019, including 4.6 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 2.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (1-4 SU).
Second baseman Starlin Castro and third baseman Brian Anderson continue to lead Miami’s hitters. Castro is hitting .267/.290/.407 with 16 home runs, 72 RBIs and 47 runs scored. Anderson (.261/.342/.468) is up to 20 homers, 66 RBIs and 57 runs scored.
In the other dugout, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have given up 5.5 runs per game overall in 2019. Its starters have a 5.23 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.85 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 9.9 K/9.
The Pittsburgh offense is putting up 4.8 runs per outing, including 7.6 per game over its last 10 games and 8.0 per game over its last five. The team’s hit .365/.399/.594 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that span.
Right fielder Starling Marte and first baseman Josh Bell have led the Pirates’ offense this year. Marte is hitting .295/.342/.505 with 23 home runs, 79 RBIs, 95 runs and 25 stolen bases, and Bell’s line is .280/.366/.579 with 35 homers, 110 RBIs and 91 runs.
The Marlins have lost 11.8 units and are 47-54 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in 44 of those games, compared to 50 that’ve hit the under against righty starters. On the other hand, the Pirates have netted 0.6 units and are 52-49 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s hit in 53 of those games, compared to 43 that went under the total.
Marlins at Pirates Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER
Betting Trends
- Miami has recorded 10 extra-base hits over its last five contests. Pittsburgh has 23 XBH over its last five.
- The Marlins have dropped six of their last seven games SU.
- Miami has recorded 19.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 13.4 over its last five.
- The Marlins have hit 15 home runs in their last 10 games. The Pirates have hit 16 over their last 10.
- The Marlins have a total OPS of .665 this season and an OPS of .652 against right-handed pitchers. The Pirates’ OPS stands at .757 overall and .780 versus righties.
