The Miami Heat (22-17) look to snap the five-game winning streak of Toronto when they head to Air Canada Centre to challenge the Raptors (28-10). Toronto opened as a 7-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 208 points. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 9, 2018, and it can be seen on The Sports Network.
Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors Betting Preview
In the Heat’s last game, they barely escaped the Utah Jazz, 103-102. With 14 points and 10 rebounds, Hassan Whiteside played well for Miami. The Heat had an absurdly low turnover percentage of 8.0 (better than their season average of 13.8) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.536 (above their season average of 0.525).
The Raptors will look to keep it rolling after edging the Brooklyn Nets in their last outing, 114-113. Toronto received a boost from DeMar DeRozan, who was the games leading scorer with 35 points on 14-for-30 shooting. The Raptors held the Nets to an effective field goal percentage of 0.450 (below their season average of 0.508) and had a better turnover percentage (11.9 vs. 12.5).
Miami could struggle to create turnovers. Toronto ranks fourth in the NBA at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 13.1 percent), while Miami forces the 15th-most turnovers (14.1 percent).
Of Miami’s 39 games, 22 have finished under the O/U total, while 19 of Toronto’s 37 games have finished over the O/U total. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Raptors have a substantial advantage. They are 28-10 SU and 22-15 ATS, while the Heat are 22-17 SU and 16-21-2 ATS.
Both teams have had a player trending in the right direction over their last five games. For the Heat, it’s been Goran Dragic, who has averaged 18.6 points, 7.6 assists and 1.2 steals, while the Raptors have gotten solid contributions from DeRozan (29.4 points, 5.0 assists and 1.4 steals).
This is the first time these teams will go head-to-head this year. The Raptors won three out of four meetings played against each other last season. In the last matchup, Toronto won 96-94. The Raptors’ turnover percentage was their largest strength over the Heat. Toronto had a rate of 13.6, while Miami posted a mark of 16.6.
Miami Heat vs. Toronto Raptors Free Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Raptors, ATS Winner – Raptors, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Raptors rank fifth in steals per game (8.7) while the Heat rank 17th (7.4).
- Miami ranks fourth in assists allowed per game (20.4) while Toronto ranks 12th (22.3).
- Toronto ranks second in blocks per game (6.0) while Miami ranks 13th (4.8).
- On the road, Miami is 11-8 ATS with 12 unders, 6 overs and 1 push.
- Toronto is 9-6 ATS at home with 8 overs and 7 unders.
- Miami is 13-3 when they allow less than 100 points, while Toronto is 11-3.
- In games where they score above 100 points, the Raptors are 27-5 and the Heat are 17-6.
- The Raptors rank 19th in second chance points per game (11.7) while the Heat rank 27th (9.9).
- Toronto ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (48.3) while Miami ranks 26th (40.6).
- The Raptors rank first in points off turnovers per game (19.4) while the Heat rank 23rd (15.3).
- The Heat lead the league with 25.1 three pointers allowed per game while the Raptors are fourth with 26.1 three pointers allowed per game.
- Toronto ranks fifth in fast break points per game (14.1) while Miami ranks 26th (7.2).
Betting Trends:
- Toronto is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Miami is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
- The Raptors average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.2, up from 7.9 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 105.0 points per game (4.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 106.2 points per game (4.0 above their season average).
