The Miami Heat (29-34), 2.5-point underdogs, will be at the Spectrum Center to take on the Charlotte Hornets (29-34) in a Southeast Division matchup. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 219.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports Carolina at 7 p.m. ET on Wednesday, March 6, 2019.
Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets Betting Odds
Neither team was able to cover in their last game. The Heat (10-point favorites) beat the Atlanta Hawks, 114-113, while the Hornets (2.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Portland Trail Blazers, 118-108. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Miami game finished 5.5 points over the projected point total of 221.5, while the Charlotte game finished 2.5 points over the projected point total of 223.5.
Miami’s 0.614 effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Atlanta, who had a mark of 0.511. The Heat’s mark was above their season average of 0.516. Charlotte, on the other hand, did a great job of converting from the free throw line (20-23; 87.0 percent). Kemba Walker played well for Charlotte, recording 18 points and 12 assists. Meanwhile, Miami was led by Josh Richardson, who finished with 19 points, five rebounds and five assists.
The Hornets have won both matchups against the Heat this year. In their most recent game, the two teams combined for 238 points, well over the projected point total of 221. Charlotte won 125-113, covering as a 4-point favorite. Charlotte was successful at getting and making free throws. The Hornets made 24 of their 29 free throws (82.8 percent), while the Heat were 20-24 (83.3 percent). Tony Parker recorded a double-double with 24 points and 11 assists.
Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Heat games, with 33 overs compared to 29 unders. Miami holds records of 29-34 straight up (SU) and 32-30-1 against the spread (ATS).
Hornets games tend to finish over the total (57.1 percent). Further, Charlotte owns records of 29-34 SU and 29-32-2 ATS.
Miami might have a difficult time creating turnovers. Charlotte ranks first in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 11.8 percent), while Miami forces the 15th-most turnovers (13.2 percent). Moreover, the Heat, who rank 28th in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.176), will clash against the Hornets, who rank third in opponents’ FTA rate (0.181).
Miami Heat vs. Charlotte Hornets Odds Pick
Free NBA Pick: SU Winner – Hornets, ATS Winner – Hornets, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Hornets rank 22nd in fast break points per game (11.3) while the Heat rank 28th (9.8).
- Charlotte ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.1) while Miami ranks 27th (18.1).
- The Heat rank third in points allowed in the paint per game (42.8) while the Hornets rank 16th (49.4).
- Miami averages 46.2 rebounds per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Charlotte ranks 20th in rebounds allowed per game (45.3).
- Miami ranks sixth in second chance points per game (14.2) while Charlotte ranks 17th in second chance points allowed per game (13.4).
- The Heat rank sixth in blocks per game (5.6) while the Hornets rank last in blocks allowed per game (6.2).
- The Heat rank 13th in three pointers attempted per game (32.6) while the Hornets rank 24th in three pointers allowed per game (33.3).
- Miami ranks second in assists allowed per game (22.8) while Charlotte ranks 26th (25.8).
- Charlotte is 10-2 when they allow below 100 points, while Miami is 16-3.
- The Hornets are 28-24 when they score above 100 points, while the Heat are 27-18.
- Miami is 20-11 ATS on the road, while Charlotte is 16-15-2 ATS at home.
- The total has gone over in 15 of the Heat’s 31 road games, while 18 of the Hornets’ 33 home games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Miami and Charlotte have both had 4 overs and 1 under.
- The Heat are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Hornets are 1-3-1.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 119.2 points per game (13.2 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.2 points per game (7.6 above their season average).
- The Hornets’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 3.4, up from 0.5 for the season.
