A seven-game home winning streak is on the line for the Boston Celtics (14-5), who will be 5.5-point favorites when they welcome the Miami Heat (15-5) to TD Garden. The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 213 points and it starts at 7:30 p.m. ET on Wednesday, December 4, 2019.
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics Betting Odds
Both teams covered as favorites in their last outing. The Celtics (7.5-point favorites) defeated the New York Knicks 113-104, while the Heat (4.5-point favorites) beat the Toronto Raptors 121-110. Both games finished over their projected point totals. The Boston game finished 8.5 points over the projected point total of 208.5, while the Miami game went 16 points over the projected point total of 215.
Miami played a nearly flawless game. They had an offensive rebounding percentage of 20.4 (below their season average of 22.4) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.530 (below their season average of 0.553). For those same stats, Toronto put up marks of 16.7 and 0.445, respectively. The Celtics, on the other hand, had a fantastic offensive rebounding percentage of 34.0 (above their season average of 22.9) and had a better turnover percentage (11.2 vs. 13.2). Jayson Tatum had a good game for Boston with 30 points, seven assists and six rebounds. Jimmy Butler, meanwhile played an enormous role in the victory for Miami, racking up 22 points, 13 rebounds and 12 assists on his way to his zeroth triple-double this season.
The Celtics captured this series last year, taking three out of four games. In the last matchup, Boston won 112-102. Boston made good use of their 31 trips to the free throw line, converting on 27 of them (87.1 percent). Miami, on the other hand, was just 12-20 (60.0 percent). This will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams.
Of the Heat’s 19 games with betting action, nine have finished over the total. Miami heads into the game with records of 15-5 straight up (SU) and 12-5-2 against the spread (ATS).
Vegas tends to place the total high when the Celtics are involved, as 57.9 percent of their games have gone under the O/U total. Additionally, Boston owns records of 14-5 SU and 11-7-1 ATS.
Ball protection could play a significant role in this contest. Boston commits the second-fewest miscues in the league (turnover percentage of 12.2 percent), while the pesky defense of Miami forces the second-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.7 percent).
Heat at Celtics Pick
Prediction: SU Winner – Celtics, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- Boston ranks first in steals allowed per game (5.8) while Miami ranks 28th (8.8).
- The Heat rank third in rebounds allowed per game (40.8) while the Celtics rank 25th (47.3).
- Boston ranks eighth in fast break points per game (14.7) while Miami ranks 26th (11.1).
- Boston ranks second in points allowed in the paint per game (41.5) while Miami ranks eighth (45.2).
- The Celtics rank first in points off turnovers allowed per game (13.7) while the Heat rank 28th (19.8).
- The Celtics average 34.7 three pointers per game, which ranks 11th in the NBA. The Heat rank 25th in three pointers allowed per game (36.7).
- Miami ranks second in blocks allowed per game (3.7) while Boston ranks 25th (6.0).
- When allowing under 100 points, Boston is 3-1 and Miami is 4-1.
- When reaching the century mark, the Celtics are 13-2 and the Heat are 15-2.
- Boston is 4-3 ATS at home, while Miami is 5-5-1 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone under in 6 of the Heat’s 11 road games, while 4 of the Celtics’ 7 home games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- The Celtics are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Boston has 3 overs and 2 unders, while Miami has 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push.
- The Celtics’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 2.4, down from 6.3 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 115.4 points per game (3.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 107.6 points per game (2.3 above their season average).
