The NBA’s top shooting defense will be at home in Fiserv Forum, when the Milwaukee Bucks (53-19) square off with the Miami Heat (35-36). The game starts at 8:30 p.m. ET on Friday, March 22, 2019, and will air on Fox Sports – Seattle.
Miami Heat at Milwaukee Bucks Betting Odds
The Heat come in on a high note after defeating the San Antonio Spurs in their last outing, 110-105, as 6-point underdogs. The Bucks, meanwhile, were defeated by the Cleveland Cavaliers, 107-102, and failed to cover as 5.5-point underdogs. The Miami game went 3.5 points over the projected point total of 211.5, while the Milwaukee game finished 16 points under the projected point total of 225.
Miami’s effective field goal percentage was their biggest advantage over San Antonio. The Heat had a rate of 0.558 (above their season average of 0.517), while the Spurs posted a mark of 0.511. Milwaukee, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (8.2 vs. 9.6). Khris Middleton played well for Milwaukee, putting up 26 points and 12 rebounds. Meanwhile, Miami was lifted by Josh Richardson, who had 15 points and five rebounds.
The Bucks lead the season series two games to one. The two teams combined for 211 points in their most recent game, which was under the projected point total of 220.5. Milwaukee won 113-98, covering as a 5-point favorite. Milwaukee’s free throw rate was their largest strength over Miami. The Bucks had a rate of 0.193, while the Heat posted a mark of 0.151. Giannis Antetokounmpo put up a double-double in the victory with 33 points and 16 rebounds.
Heat games have gone over the projected point total 52.1 percent of the time. Miami comes into the game with records of 35-36 straight up (SU) and 38-32-1 against the spread (ATS).
Contrary to Miami, games involving the Bucks have gone under the projected point total 52.8 percent of the time. Further, Milwaukee is 53-19 SU and 42-28-2 ATS.
Contrasting tempos will be on display in this contest. Milwaukee prefers to play up-tempo (sixth in possessions per game), while Miami is methodical (27th in possessions per game). Additionally, the 24th-ranked offense of the Heat (offensive efficiency of 105.7) will square off against the top-ranked defense of the Bucks (defensive efficiency of 102.9).
Miami Heat vs. Milwaukee Bucks Free Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Heat, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Bucks rank second in steals allowed per game (6.9) while the Heat rank 11th (7.5).
- Milwaukee ranks second in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.4) while Miami ranks 24th (17.4).
- The Bucks rank second in three pointers attempted per game (38.1) while the Heat rank 19th in three pointers allowed per game (32.6).
- Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (23.0) while Milwaukee ranks 15th (24.5).
- Milwaukee ranks third in points in the paint per game (53.6) while Miami ranks 14th (48.9).
- The Bucks rank sixth in fast break points per game (17.3) while the Heat rank 28th (9.8).
- The Bucks rank second in blocks per game (6.0) while the Heat rank 13th in blocks allowed per game (4.9).
- Miami ranks fourth in rebounds allowed per game (43.3) while Milwaukee ranks 13th (45.0).
- Miami ranks sixth in second chance points per game (14.4) while Milwaukee ranks 27th (11.7).
- Milwaukee is 18-1 when they allow under 100 points, while Miami is 19-3.
- When reaching the century mark, the Bucks are 52-15 and the Heat are 31-19.
- Miami is 23-11 ATS on the road, while Milwaukee is 20-14 ATS at home.
- In 34 road games, the Heat have 17 overs, 16 unders and 1 push.
- Of the Bucks’ 34 home games, they have 17 overs and 17 unders.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Miami and Milwaukee have both had 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Heat are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Bucks are 3-2.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 105.0 points per game (1.0 below their season average) and allowed an average of 94.8 points per game (10.9 below their season average).
- The Bucks’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 7.2, down from 9.0 for the season.
