The league’s top scoring team will be a 14.5-point favorite at home in ORACLE Arena, when the Golden State Warriors (39-15) take on the Miami Heat (25-28). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 222 points and it can be seen on NBATV at 8:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, February 10, 2019.
Miami Heat vs. Golden State Warriors Betting Odds
Neither team was able to cover in their last game. The Warriors (17-point favorites) defeated the Phoenix Suns, 117-107, while the Heat (3.5-point underdogs) were defeated by the Sacramento Kings, 102-96. The Golden State game finished 5.5 points under the projected point total of 229.5, while the Miami game finished 22.5 points under the projected point total of 220.5.
The Warriors held the Suns to an effective field goal percentage of 0.416 (below their season average of 0.515) and had a free throw rate of 0.309 (above their season average of 0.195). Miami, on the other hand, had a better offensive rebounding percentage (23.4 vs. 20.8). Golden State was led by Klay Thompson, who had 25 points and six rebounds. Hassan Whiteside, meanwhile had a good outing for Miami, putting up 17 points and 19 rebounds.
The Warriors dominated this series last year, winning both contests. In the last game, Golden State won 123-95. The Warriors’ offensive rebounding percentage was their biggest strength over the Heat. Golden State had a rate of 23.3, while Miami posted a mark of 12.8. This is the first time these teams will clash this year.
Games involving the Heat have a slight tendency to go over the total (49.1 percent). Miami holds records of 25-28 straight up (SU) and 26-26-1 against the spread (ATS).
Vegas has typically been fairly accurate when predicting totals of Warriors games, with 29 overs compared to 25 unders. Golden State is 39-15 SU, but they are just 24-29-1 ATS.
From an effective field goal percentage perspective, this will be a matchup of two heavyweights. The sweet-shooting Golden State offense ranks first in the league in that metric at 0.563, while the elite Miami defense is ranked second in effective field goal percentage allowed (0.507).
Miami Heat at Golden State Warriors Odds Pick
Pick: SU Winner – Warriors, ATS Winner – Warriors, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Warriors rank fifth in rebounds allowed per game (43.3) while the Heat rank 11th (44.1).
- Golden State ranks second in fast break points per game (19.6) while Miami ranks 28th (9.7).
- The Warriors rank first in blocks allowed per game (3.5) while the Heat rank 14th (5.0).
- Golden State scores 17.0 points off turnovers per game, which ranks 13th in the NBA. Miami ranks 26th in points off turnovers given up per game (18.0).
- Miami ranks 16th in points in the paint per game (48.2) while Golden State ranks 28th (43.1).
- The Warriors rank first in assists per game (29.6) while the Heat rank 19th (23.6).
- The Heat rank sixth in second chance points per game (14.5) while the Warriors rank 19th in second chance points allowed per game (13.8).
- Miami ranks 11th in three pointers allowed per game (30.6) while Golden State ranks 28th (33.3).
- Miami is 15-3 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Golden State is 6-0.
- The Warriors are 39-10 when they reach the century mark, while the Heat are 23-14.
- Miami is 16-10 ATS on the road, while Golden State is 11-15-1 ATS at home.
- In 26 road games, the Heat have 13 unders, 12 overs and 1 push.
- The Warriors have 15 unders and 12 overs in 27 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Miami and Golden State have both had 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Warriors are 2-3 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 1-4.
- The Warriors’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 17.2, up from 7.7 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 98.6 points per game (6.4 below their season average) and allowed an average of 105.6 points per game (0.1 above their season average).
