Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks ATS Prediction 12/14/19

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The Dallas Mavericks (17-7) will be 7-point favorites at home in the American Airlines Center when they clash with the Miami Heat (18-7). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) opened at 215.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Southwest at 8:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 14, 2019.

Miami Heat at Dallas Mavericks Betting Odds

The Mavericks hope to maintain momentum after covering the 6.5-point spread against the Detroit Pistons in their last matchup, 122-111. The Heat, meanwhile, were topped by the Los Angeles Lakers, 113-110, and were unable to cover as 8.5-point underdogs. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Dallas game went 16 points over the projected point total of 217, while the Miami game went 4.5 points over the projected point total of 218.5.

Dallas dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a solid offensive rebounding percentage of 27.5 (above their season average of 24.3) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.602 (above their season average of 0.547). For those same stats, Detroit was 10.9 and 0.534, respectively. Miami, meanwhile, had a turnover percentage of 7.6 (better than their season average of 14.7). Luka Doncic played a massive role in the victory for Dallas with 41 points, 12 rebounds and 11 assists to register his seventh triple-double of the season. Meanwhile, Miami was lifted by Bam Adebayo, who recorded 12 points, 12 rebounds and five assists.

The Heat dominated this series last year, securing victories in both games. In the last matchup, Miami won 105-99. Getting to the free throw line was one of Miami’s largest strengths. They had 27 free throw attempts, while Dallas had 17. This is the first time these teams will go head-to-head this year.

Of the Heat’s 24 games with betting action, 12 have finished over the O/U total. Miami holds records of 18-7 straight up (SU) and 14-8-2 against the spread (ATS).

Of the Mavericks’ 24 games, 15 have finished over the total. Additionally, Dallas owns records of 17-7 SU and 15-9 ATS.

Based on each team’s statistical profile, ball protection could play a significant role in this showdown. Dallas commits the fewest miscues in the NBA (turnover percentage of 11.9 percent), while the disruptive defense of Miami forces the fifth-most (opponents’ turnover percentage of 15.1 percent). Also, the Heat rank second in free throw attempt (FTA) rate (0.237), while the Mavericks rank fourth in opponents’ FTA rate (0.170).

Heat vs. Mavericks Pick

Free NBA Tip: SU Winner – Mavericks, ATS Winner – Heat, O/U – Over

Betting Notes:

  • The Mavericks rank second in blocks allowed per game (3.6) while the Heat rank third (4.1).
  • Dallas averages 40.7 three pointers per game, which ranks second in the league. Miami ranks 27th in three pointers allowed per game (37.6).
  • The Mavericks rank third in second chance points per game (15.3) while the Heat rank 21st (12.5).
  • Dallas ranks third in rebounds per game (47.9) while Miami ranks 17th (44.9).
  • Dallas ranks 12th in assists per game (24.4) while Miami ranks 14th in assists allowed per game (23.9).
  • The Mavericks rank fifth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.2) while the Heat rank 28th (19.4).
  • The Mavericks rank 19th in fast break points per game (12.1) while the Heat rank 25th (11.0).
  • Miami ranks seventh in steals per game (8.4) while Dallas ranks 27th (6.4).
  • In games where they hold opponents under 100 points, Miami is 4-1 and Dallas is 3-0.
  • The Heat are 18-3 when they reach the century mark, while the Mavericks are 17-6.
  • Dallas is 6-7 ATS at home, while Miami is 6-6-1 ATS on the road.
  • The Heat have 7 unders, 5 overs and 1 push in 13 road games.
  • In 13 home games, the Mavericks have 8 overs and 5 unders.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Miami and Dallas have both had 3 overs and 2 unders.
  • The Mavericks are 4-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Heat are 2-3.
  • During their last five games, the Mavericks have scored an average of 119.4 points per game (1.3 above their season average) and allowed an average of 103.2 points per game (5.2 below their season average).
  • The Heat’s average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.2, down from 5.4 for the season.