The No. 8 Cincinnati Bearcats (28-4, 17-2 AAC) and the Memphis Tigers (21-12, 12-8 AAC) go head-to-head in the American Athletic Conference Tournament at Amway Center. The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 130.5 points with Cincinnati set as a 16.5-point favorite. Tip-off is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET on Saturday, March 10, 2018.
Memphis Tigers vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Preview
In the Tigers last matchup, they barely escaped the Tulsa Golden Hurricane, 67-64. With 15 points, Memphis Kareem Brewton Jr. had a good performance. Memphis effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Tulsa. The Tigers had a rate of 0.573 (above their season average of 0.508), while the Golden Hurricane posted a mark of 0.429 (below their season average of 0.510).
The Bearcats hope to maintain momentum after topping the SMU Mustangs in their last matchup, 61-51. Cincinnati was led by Gary Clark, who contributed 12 points and 11 rebounds. Cincinnati dominated every stat category in the game. They had a free throw rate of 0.193 (matching their season average) and an offensive rebounding percentage of 37.8 (below their season average of 38.6). SMU had marks of 0.036 and 26.5, respectively, for those same stats.
Cincinnati could have their way on the offensive side of the ball as their productive offense goes up against one of the NCAA’s worst defenses. The Bearcats rank 34th in offensive efficiency, while Memphis ranks 253rd in defensive efficiency. It could also be an error-filled game for the Tigers offense, which ranks 309th in ball security (turnover percentage of 20.8 percent). They’ll be going up against the stingy defense of the Bearcats, which forces the 11th-most turnovers in the NCAA (22.8 percent).
In terms of the O/U total, these teams are complete opposites. Games involving Memphis have finished over 55.2 percent of the time, while 59.3 percent of Cincinnati games have finished under. Looking at straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) records, the Bearcats have a sizable advantage. They are 28-4 SU and 17-11 ATS, while the Tigers are 21-12 SU and 13-15-1 ATS.
These two teams have met twice already this season, with the Bearcats winning both. Clark put up 18 points and nine rebounds in the most recent matchup, in which the Bearcats beat the Tigers 62-48, covering as 12-point favorites. The two teams combined to score 110 points, which was 19.5 points below the projected point total of 129.5 points. Cincinnati’s effective field goal percentage was its largest strength over Memphis. The Bearcats had a rate of 0.510 while the Tigers posted a mark of 0.344.
Memphis Tigers vs. Cincinnati Bearcats Betting Prediction
Pick: SU Winner – Cincinnati, ATS Winner – Cincinnati, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- The Bearcats rank 102nd in three pointers allowed per game (20.6) while the Tigers rank 233rd (23.5).
- Cincinnati averages 5.6 blocks per game, which ranks ninth in the nation. Memphis ranks 128th in blocks allowed per game (3.4).
- Cincinnati ranks 10th in assists allowed per game (10.1) while Memphis ranks 224th (14.7).
- The Bearcats rank 19th in steals allowed per game (4.9) while the Tigers rank 203rd (7.3).
- Cincinnati ranks 21st in rebounds per game (39.2) while Memphis ranks 200th (34.4).
Betting Trends:
- Cincinnati is 3-2 ATS with 2 overs, 2 unders and 1 push in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Memphis is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
- The Bearcats average margin of victory in their last five games has been 14.6, down from 18.1 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Tigers have scored an average of 74.0 points per game (2.8 above their season average) and allowed an average of 73.0 points per game (1.8 above their season average).
