The league’s top scoring defense will be a 10-point favorite at home in Pepsi Center, when the Denver Nuggets (21-9) face off with the Memphis Grizzlies (12-20). The game’s Over/Under (O/U) has been set at 216.5 points and it will air on Fox Sports – Southeast at 5 p.m. ET on Saturday, December 28, 2019.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Odds
In the Grizzlies’ last game, they beat the Oklahoma City Thunder, 110-97, as 6-point underdogs. The Nuggets, meanwhile, were beaten by the New Orleans Pelicans, 112-100, and failed to cover as 9-point underdogs. The Memphis game finished 17.5 points under the projected point total of 224.5, while the Denver game went 4 points under the projected point total of 216.
The Grizzlies held the Thunder to an offensive rebounding percentage of 14.3 (below the 22.0 mark opponents have averaged against Memphis this season) and had an effective field goal percentage of 0.607 (above their season average of 0.523). Denver, meanwhile, forced New Orleans into a turnover percentage of 15.9 (above the 12.6 mark opponents have averaged against Denver this season). Nikola Jokic played well for Denver with 23 points and 10 rebounds. Memphis received a boost from Jaren Jackson Jr., who contributed 20 points.
In their first matchup this season, Jamal Murray led the Nuggets to a 131-114 victory. He was the game’s leading scorer with 39 points. The two teams combined to score 245 points, which was well over the projected point total of 215, and Denver covered as a 6.5-point favorite. The Nuggets’ 10.8 turnover percentage was their biggest strength over the Grizzlies, who had a mark of 14.5.
Games featuring the Grizzlies have no tendency in regards to the total, as there has been an even split between games finishing over and under. Memphis holds records of 12-20 straight up (SU) and 15-17 against the spread (ATS).
Of the Nuggets’ 30 games, 20 have finished under the total. Denver is 21-9 SU, but they are just 11-15-4 ATS.
Memphis could have a tough time creating turnovers. Denver ranks eighth in the league at avoiding errors (turnover percentage of 13.2 percent), while Memphis forces the 18th-most turnovers (13.7 percent).
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Odds Pick
NBA Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Grizzlies rank 19th in three pointers attempted per game (32.3) while the Nuggets rank 25th (30.4).
- Denver ranks first in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.2) while Memphis ranks 29th (20.2).
- The Nuggets rank ninth in blocks allowed per game (4.6) while the Grizzlies rank 27th (5.8).
- Memphis averages 54.0 points in the paint per game, which ranks first in the league. Denver ranks 17th in points allowed in the paint per game (48.1).
- Denver averages 8.0 steals per game, which ranks 13th in the league. Memphis ranks 19th in steals allowed per game (7.9).
- The Nuggets rank fifth in second chance points allowed per game (11.9) while the Grizzlies rank 26th (14.5).
- The Grizzlies rank fourth in fast break points per game (16.2) while the Nuggets rank 20th (12.1).
- Denver ranks fourth in assists per game (26.6) while Memphis ranks 23rd in assists allowed per game (25.3).
- Denver is 10-1 when they allow less than 100 points, while Memphis is 1-0.
- When reaching 100 points, the Grizzlies are 12-15 and the Nuggets are 19-5.
- Memphis is 7-7 ATS on the road, while Denver is 6-9-2 ATS at home.
- Of the Grizzlies’ 14 road games, they have 9 unders and 5 overs.
- The Nuggets have 12 unders and 5 overs in 17 home games.
Bettings Trends:
- In their last five games, Memphis and Denver have both had 3 overs and 2 unders.
- The Grizzlies are 3-2 ATS over their last five games, while the Nuggets are 1-3-1.
- During their last five games, the Grizzlies have scored an average of 114.6 points per game (3.7 above their season average) and allowed an average of 119.4 points per game (2.9 above their season average).
- The Nuggets’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 6.4, up from 5.1 for the season.
