Two teams that prefer to keep the ball on the ground, Coach Matt Canada and the Maryland Terrapins (+14) are ready to pay a visit to their Big 10 nemesis No. 15 Penn State Nittany Lions (-14) at Beaver Stadium. ABC will televise the action and this daytime matchup is scheduled to kick off at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Maryland Terrapins at Penn State Nittany Lions
In this Saturday Big Ten game, Penn State is projected as the heavy favorite and the team’s currently giving up 14 points. If they are wanting to take the moneyline, gamblers would currently need to put up $600 in order to win $100 back on the Nittany Lions (-600). The Terrapins are getting +425 moneyline odds. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 55.5 points. On the surface it looks like there should be some solid live betting scenarios in this game.
The opening line was -14. The game’s total hasn’t moved since it opened at 55.5.
The disappointing Terrapins are down 8.5 units so far and 6-5 against the spread (ATS). The team’s recorded an O/U mark of 6-5.
The Nittany Lions have lost 4.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 6-5 ATS and six of their games have gone over the total.
The Terrapins have gone 5-6 straight up (SU), including 3-5 SU against conference opponents. The Nittany Lions are 8-3 SU overall and 5-3 SU in conference play.
Maryland enters this matchup on a two-game winning streak while Penn State has come up short in each of its last three. The Terrapins are hoping to bounce back after a 52-51 loss to Ohio State last week. The Terps defense allowed the Buckeyes to pass for 405 yards and three touchdowns while rushing for 283 yards and four scores. On the offensive side, Tyrrell Pigrome completed just six passes on 13 attempts for 181 yards and one touchdown. Anthony McFarland (298 yards on 21 rush attempts, two TDs) and the signal-caller Pigrome (-20 yards on 11 carries) mounted the ground attack. Jeshaun Jones (two receptions, 27 yards, one TD) and Darryl Jones (two catches, 68 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
Penn State is coming off of a 20-7 win over Rutgers. Trace McSorley completed 17-of-37 passes for 183 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Miles Sanders (88 yards on 27 rush attempts) led the running game while KJ Hamler (five receptions, 71 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Maryland has run the ball on 67.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Penn State has an overall rush percentage of 57.7 percent. The Terrapins have rushed for 244.4 yards/game (including 246.1 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 26 scores on the ground this year. The Nittany Lions are putting up 199.4 rushing yards per game (185.0 in conference) and have 29 total rush TDs.
It appears that the Nittany Lions could own the advantage in the trenches. Their offensive line has allowed just 24 sacks while their D-line has registered 38 sacks. The Terrapins offensive line has allowed 25 sacks and their defense has recorded only 16 sacks.
The Terps offensive scheme has tallied 137.3 yards per contest in the air overall (132.8 per game versus conference opposition) and has 12 passing TDs so far. The Nittany Lions have recorded 212.2 pass yards per game (198 in the Big 10) and have 18 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, Maryland has allowed 172.5 rush yards and 202.1 pass yards per game. The Penn State defense has allowed 186.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 177.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Nittany Lions are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.57 to opposing QBs, while the Terrapins have given up a 5.02 ANY/A.
Offensively, Pigrome is up to 230 passing yards on the year, and has completed 42 percent of his 31 attempts with one scores through the air and one interception. He has a 3.60 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 10.65 over the past two outings.
Anthony McFarland (812 rushing yards, four rush TDs this season), Dontay Demus (145 receiving yards) and Jeshaun Jones (204 receiving yards, four TDs) have each played key roles lately.
In the other locker room, Trace McSorley has completed 144-of-281 passes for 1,894 yards, 14 TDs and six INTs. McSorley’s ANY/A stands at 5.98 for the year and 5.33 over his last two games.
Miles Sanders (936 rushing yards, eight rush TDs this season), KJ Hamler (588 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) and Jahan Dotson (118 receiving yards) have combined to account for 462 total yards over the last two games.
These two schools met last year with the final result being a 66-3 victory for Penn State.
Maryland Terrapins at Penn State Nittany Lions Free Prediction
SU Winner: Maryland, ATS Winner: Maryland, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Penn State offense has lost 11 fumbles this season while Maryland has let nine get away.
- The Penn State defense has notched 38 sacks on the year while Maryland has just 16.
- Maryland has produced 5.3 yards per carry over its last three games and 6.5 over its last two.
- Penn State has averaged 3.4 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.7 over its past two.
- In its last three games, Penn State is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Maryland’s last game was set at 61.5. The over cashed in the team’s 52-51 loss to Ohio State.
- In its last three games, Maryland is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Penn State’s previous outing was 53. The under cashed in the 20-7 victory over Rutgers.
- Maryland has lost five of its last six games SU, with a 30-point victory over Illinois on October 27th representing the only win over that stretch.
- Penn State has won five of its last six games SU, with a -35-point loss to Michigan on November 3rd representing its only slip-up over that span.
