Two schools that like to deploy their running games, Head Coach Billy Napier and the Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns (+3) are set to pay a visit to their conference counterpart Louisiana-monroe Warhawks (-3) at JPS Field at James L. Malone Stadium. Fans can catch the action live on ESPN+ and kickoff is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns at Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
In this Saturday Sun Belt game, Louisiana-Monroe has been projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 3 points. The Ragin’ Cajuns are also receiving +135 moneyline odds while the Warhawks are -155. This SBC tilt should provide several decent live betting opportunities, and oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 68 points.
The sharp action has been siding with the Ragin’ Cajuns, as the line opened at -4. The game’s over/under has yet to move after it was initially set at 68.
Each team has posted a positive return this season as the Ragin’ Cajuns have gained 3.8 units and the Warhawks are ahead 4.2 units.
The Ragin’ Cajuns have gone 6-5 straight up (SU), including 4-3 SU against SBC opponents. The Warhawks are 6-5 SU overall and 4-3 SU in conference play.
The Ragin’ Cajuns just scored a 48-38 victory over South Alabama last week. Andre Nunez completed 12-of-18 passes for only 153 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Elijah Mitchell (104 yards on 12 rushes, three TDs) and Trey Ragas (53 yards on 10 carries) provided the ground attack in the win while Ja’Marcus Bradley (three receptions, 62 yards, three TDs) and Jalen Williams (three catches, 38 yards) manned the receiving duties.
Louisiana-Monroe just lost 31-17 to Arkansas State. The defense allowed the Red Wolves to eat up the clock by running for 158 yards on 39 rush attempts. Kirk Merritt had a solid showing in the win for Arkansas State, recording 25 rushing yards on two attempts, along with 89 yards and two touchdowns on six catches. For Louisiana-Monroe, Caleb Evans completed 17-of-28 passes for 218 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Evans (34 yards on 14 rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat while Marcus Green (five receptions, 69 yards) and Josh Pederson (five catches, 60 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.
Louisiana has run the ball on 60.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Louisiana-Monroe has an overall rush percentage of 51.1 percent. The Ragin’ Cajuns have rushed for 229.3 yards per game (including 228.3 per game against Sun Belt opponents) and have 28 touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Warhawks are putting up 169.5 rush yards per game (180.7 in conference) and have 21 total rushing TDs.
If the numbers so far this season can translate to this game, then the Warhawks ought to hold an edge along both the offensive and defensive fronts, since their offensive line has yielded just 19 sacks while their D-line has registered 33 sacks. The Ragin’ Cajuns O-line has given up 20 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 18 occasions.
The Ragin’ Cajuns offensive scheme has logged 218.7 yards per contest in the air overall (202.4 per game against conference opposition) and has 22 passing TDs so far. The Warhawks have produced 251.7 pass yards per contest (244 against SBC foes) and have 15 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, Louisiana has allowed 214.7 rush yards and 237.6 pass yards per game. The Louisiana-Monroe defense has allowed 250.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 177.5 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Ragin’ Cajuns have given up an ANY/A of 8.41 to opposing QBs, while the Warhawks are yielding an ANY/A of 8.05.
Offensively, Nunez has amassed 1,762 passing yards this year. He’s completed 65 percent of his 215 attempts with 15 scores through the air and nine interceptions. Nunez has a 6.74 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.35 over the last two games.
The Ragin’ Cajuns will probably try to maintain the clock by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Elijah Mitchell (669 rush yards, 11 rush TDs, 287 receiving yards, two receiving TDs), Raymond Calais (485 rush yards, three rush TDs), and Trey Ragas (893 rush yards, eight rush TDs, one receiving TD) have really been focal points in the offensive gameplans for Louisiana.
Caleb Evans has connected on 189-of-318 passes for 2,301 yards, 12 TDs and 11 INTs for Louisiana-Monroe. His ANY/A sits at 5.83 for the year and 7.31 over his past two games.
The Warhawks will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to D’Marius Gillespie (66 receiving yards), Marcus Green (111 rush yards, 757 receiving yards, seven receiving TDs) and Caleb Evans (554 rush yards, eight rush TDs) have gotten plenty of looks lately.
When these two programs met a year ago, Louisiana-Monroe won by two field goals 56-50.
Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Free NCAA Betting Tip
SU Winner: Louisiana, ATS Winner: Louisiana, O/U: Over
Team Betting Notes
- The Ragin’ Cajuns offense has registered eight pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Warhawks have accounted for 10 such plays.
- The Louisiana defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Louisiana-Monroe has given up seven such plays.
- The Louisiana offense has created 27 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Louisiana-Monroe has created 14 such runs.
- The Ragin’ Cajuns defense has allowed 14 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Warhawks have given up 21 such runs.
- The Louisiana-Monroe defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 33 times this season. Louisiana has produced just 18 sacks.
- As a team, Louisiana has produced 6.2 yards per carry across its last three outings and 8.0 over its last two.
- Louisiana-Monroe has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 3.6 over its last two.
- Over its last three games, Louisiana-Monroe is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Louisiana’s last game going into it was 67. The over cashed in the team’s 48-38 win over South Alabama.
- In its last three matchups, Louisiana is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Louisiana-Monroe’s last match was set at 68.5. The under cashed in that 31-17 loss to Arkansas State.
