The Minnesota Timberwolves (46-35) and Denver Nuggets (46-35) will go head-to-head at Target Center to open their Western Conference schedules. The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 213 points with Minnesota opening as a 3.5-point favorite. Tip-off is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, April 11, 2018, and it can be seen on Altitude Sports & Entertainmnt.
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves Odds Preview
The Nuggets beat the Portland Trail Blazers in their last game, 88-82. With 15 points, 20 rebounds and 11 assists, Nikola Jokic led the way for Denver with his ninth triple-double of the year. Denver played a nearly perfect game. They had a free throw rate of 0.241 (above their season average of 0.198) and a turnover percentage of 11.3 (better than their season average of 13.0). For those same stats, Portland had marks of 0.138 and 14.3, respectively.
The last time the Timberwolves played, they blew out the Memphis Grizzlies, 113-94. Minnesota’s Karl-Anthony Towns had a good outing, contributing 24 points and 18 rebounds. Minnesota played a flawless game. They had a fantastic offensive rebounding percentage of 41.9 (above their season average of 24.3) and an effective field goal percentage of 0.523 (below their season average of 0.523). Memphis was 22.7 and 0.441, respectively, for those same stats.
Minnesota could have their way on the offensive side of the ball as their high-powered offense squares off against one of the league’s worst defenses. The Timberwolves rank fourth in offensive efficiency, while Denver ranks 26th in defensive efficiency. Furthermore, the Nuggets rank 23rd in turnover percentage (14.4 percent), while the Timberwolves rank fifth in opponents’ turnover percentage (14.8 percent).
Of Denver’s 81 games, 41 have finished over the O/U total, while 44 of Minnesota’s 81 games have finished over the projected point total. Both teams have very similar records straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). The Nuggets are 46-35 SU and 37-41-3 ATS, while the Timberwolves are 46-35 SU and 37-41-3 ATS.
Jokic has been playing at a high level recently for Denver, averaging 25.4 points, 12.0 rebounds, 7.6 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.6 blocks over the last five games.
These two teams have met three times already this season, with the Timberwolves leading the series two games to one. Towns scored a game-high 26 points in the most recent game, in which the Timberwolves lost 100-96 but covered as 4.5-point underdogs. The two teams combined to put up 196 points, which was 28 points below the projected point total of 224 points. Denver did a great job of converting from the charity stripe (19-22; 86.4 percent). Minnesota, meanwhile, had a better turnover percentage (7.5 vs. 9.2).
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves Odds Prediction
Pick: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
Betting Notes:
- The Timberwolves rank first in steals allowed per game (6.5) while the Nuggets rank 18th (8.0).
- Denver ranks fifth in assists per game (25.2) while Minnesota ranks 20th in assists allowed per game (24.0).
- Denver ranks third in second chance points allowed per game (11.1) while Minnesota ranks 20th (12.9).
- Denver is second in the NBA with 41.6 rebounds allowed per game while Minnesota is third with 41.8 rebounds allowed per game.
- On the road, Denver is 17-21-2 ATS with 21 overs, 18 unders and 1 push.
- At home, Minnesota is 20-19-1 ATS with 23 overs, 16 unders and 1 push.
- When allowing under 100 points, Denver is 15-2 and Minnesota is 19-4.
- In games where they score over 100 points, the Timberwolves are 43-22 and the Nuggets are 39-25.
- The Nuggets rank eighth in fast break points per game (13.6) while the Timberwolves rank 25th (9.6).
- Minnesota averages 17.6 points off turnovers per game, which ranks fifth in the league. Denver ranks last in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.7).
- The Nuggets rank eighth in three pointers attempted per game (30.9) while the Timberwolves rank last (22.5).
- The Nuggets average 4.9 blocks per game, which ranks 11th in the league. The Timberwolves rank 12th in blocks allowed per game (4.7).
- Minnesota ranks fourth in points in the paint per game (49.2) while Denver ranks 24th in points allowed in the paint per game (47.3).
Bettings Trends:
- Minnesota is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over in their last five games.
- Over their last five games, Denver is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs.
- The Timberwolves’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 1.8, down from 2.2 for the season.
- During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 111.4 points per game (1.4 above their season average) and allowed an average of 104.4 points per game (4.1 below their season average).
