In the final week of the NFL regular season, the Los Angeles Chargers (+8) are facing off against the Kansas City Chiefs (-8) at Arrowhead Stadium. CBS will televise the action and this AFC West game is scheduled to kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Los Angeles is a live dog in this one and is currently getting 8 points. The Chargers are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Chiefs are -310. If one squad can create a bunch of points early on it’ll generate a nice live betting scenario. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 47 points.
With the game’s total placed originally at 48, sharp bettors have been siding with the under.
The disappointing Chargers have lost 9.7 units so far and are 5-9-1 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U mark of 6-9.
The Chiefs have gained 2.6 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 10-5 ATS and have an O/U record of 7-8.
The Chargers have gone a lousy 5-10 straight up (SU), including 0-5 SU against AFC West opponents. The Chiefs are 11-4 SU overall and 5-0 SU against divisional foes.
Los Angeles enters this matchup on a five-game unbeaten streak while Kansas City has lost its last two in a row. The Bolts hope to bounce back after a 24-17 loss to Oakland last week. Philip Rivers completed 27 passes for 279 yards. As a team, the Chargers rushed for just 19 yards in the defeat.
Kansas City is coming off of a 26-3 win over Chicago in Week 16. Patrick Mahomes completed 23-of-33 passes for 251 yards and two touchdowns. Damien Williams (65 rushing yards on 16 attempts) mounted the running game as Travis Kelce (eight receptions, 74 yards, one TD) and Tyreek Hill (five catches, 72 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.
Each of these teams has a strikingly similar (62-38 pass-to-run ratio on the season. The Chargers have produced 89.7 rush yards/game (including 81.6 per game against West opponents) and have 11 scores on the ground this year. The Chiefs are totaling 93.8 rushing yards per game (85.8 in conference) and have 14 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Chiefs should own the edge when it comes to quarterback protection. Their offensive line has yielded just 25 sacks while their D-line has logged 42 sacks. The Chargers O-line has given up 31 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing signal-callerss on just 30 occasions.
The Bolts offense has tallied 291.1 yards per contest in the air overall (263 per game against conference opposition) and has 22 passing TDs so far. The Chiefs have produced 301.1 pass yards per game (267 against AFC foes) and have 29 total pass scores.
Los Angeles should have the upper hand in both defensive facets. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 109.5 yards and throw for 214.7 yards per game. The Kansas City D has given up 240 yards per game to opposing passers and 129.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Chiefs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.25 to opposing QBs, while the Chargers have given up a 6.35 ANY/A.
Offensively, Rivers is up to 4,027 passing yards on the year, and has completed 65 percent of his 506 attempts with 20 scores through the air and 15 interceptions. Rivers has a 6.70 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.28 over the last two outings.
Keenan Allen (1,018 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns this season), Austin Ekeler (492 rush yards, three rush TDs, 888 receiving yards, eight receiving TDs) and Mike Williams (892 receiving yards, one TD) have each played big roles of late.
On the other sideline, Patrick Mahomes has completed 276-of-425 passes for 3,517 yards, 23 TDs and three INTs. Mahomes’ ANY/A sits at 8.49 for the year and 8.54 over his past two outings.
Similar to the Chargers, expect a balanced approach offensively from Kansas City this Sunday. Travis Kelce (1,063 receiving yards, five receiving touchdowns on the year), Tyreek Hill (732 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) and Damien Williams (374 rush yards, three rush TDs, two receiving TDs) have combined for 448 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns over the past two games.
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Betting Pick
SU Winner: Chiefs, ATS Winner: Chargers, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- The Kansas City D has tallied 42 sacks on the year while Los Angeles has just 30.
- The Kansas City offense has lost 10 fumbles this season while Los Angeles has lost 11.
- The Chargers offense has registered 11 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Chiefs have put up 17 such plays.
- The Los Angeles defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Kansas City has given up seven such plays.
- The Los Angeles offense has created six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Kansas City has created nine such runs.
- The Chargers defense has allowed eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Chiefs have given up seven such runs.
- The O/U for Kansas City’s last match was set at 45.5. The under cashed in the 26-3 victory over Chicago.
- In its last three matchups, Kansas City is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
- In its last three matches, Los Angeles is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Los Angeles has lost six of its last seven games SU, with a 35-point win over Jacksonville on December 8th accounting for the only victory over that stretch.
- The Over/Under for Los Angeles’ previous game was 45. The under cashed in the team’s 24-17 defeat to Oakland.
- Los Angeles, as a team, has produced 4.2 yards per carry across its past three contests and 2.3 over its last two.
- Kansas City has averaged 3.3 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 3.7 over its past two.
