Head Coach Chad Lunsford and the Georgia Southern Eagles (-5) are entering the FBC Mortgage Cure Bowl as favorites against Coach Hugh Freeze and the Liberty Flames. CBS Sports Network has the TV rights and the vital afternoon game is scheduled to start at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Liberty Flames at Georgia Southern Eagles
In this Saturday game, Georgia Southern is getting picked as the favorite and is currently giving up 5 points. If they want to take the moneyline, bettors would currently need to wager $200 in order to win $100 back on the Eagles (-200). The Flames are getting +170 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 60 points. On the surface it looks like this game should have some live betting opportunities.
Sharp bettors are siding with both the Flames and the over. The line initially opened at -6 and the total was originally only 55.
The Flames are 6-6 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 1.4 units so far. The team’s posted an Over-Under record of 6-6.
The Eagles have gained 5.3 units this season. The team is 5-6-1 ATS and owns an O/U record of 8-4.
The Flames have gone 7-5 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Eagles are also 7-5 SU.
The Flames are coming off a resounding 49-28 win over New Mexico State on November 30Their defense allowed the Aggies to run for 155 yards on 37 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Jason Huntley had a productive day for the Aggies in that one with 105 rushing yards on 17 attempts. On the offense, Stephen Calvert completed only 16-of-29 passes for 169 yards and one touchdown. Frankie Hickson (196 yards on 29 rush attempts, four TDs) and Joshua Mack (118 yards on 16 carries, one TD) led the running attack in the win while Antonio Gandy-Golden (four receptions, 29 yards) and DJ Stubbs (three catches, 25 yards) handled the receiving duties.
Georgia Southern just picked up a 38-10 win over Georgia State. The defense allowed the Panthers to run for 108 yards on 37 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Cornelius McCoy had a productive outing in the loss for Georgia State, recording 89 yards on seven catches. For Georgia Southern, Shai Werts completed seven-of-10 passes for 73 yards. J.D. King (107 yards on 16 rush attempts, three TDs) and the signal-caller Werts (55 yards on 15 carries, one TD) led the ground game in the win while Khaleb Hood (two receptions, 28 yards) and Mark Michaud (two catches, 25 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
Liberty has run the ball on 48.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Georgia Southern has an overall rush percentage of 82 percent. The Flames have produced 152 rush yards/game and have 24 scores via handoffs this year. The Eagles are logging 260.8 rush yards per game and have 28 total rushing TDs.
If the results so far this season are any indication, then it’s looking like the Eagles ought to own an edge when it comes to effectiveness in the ground game. Their backfield has logged 5.0 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.8 to opponents. The Flames have recorded 4.6 yards per carry while allowing 4.7 YPC to opponents.
The Flames offensive scheme has averaged 290.5 yards through the air overall and has 27 passing TDs so far. The Eagles have put up 72.8 pass yards per contest and have nine total pass scores.
Defensively, Liberty has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 192.7 yards and throw for 229.8 yards per game. The Georgia Southern defense has allowed 240.2 yards per game to opposing passers and 137.1 yards per game to opposing runners. The Flames are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.63 to opponents, while the Eagles have given up a 7.54 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Calvert is up to 3,110 yards on the year, and has completed 217-of-356 attempts with 24 passing scores and only three interceptions. Calvert has an 8.76 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.54 over the past two outings.
The Flames have tried to control the clock by feeding their running backs early and often. Frankie Hickson (833 rush yards, 11 rush TDs, one receiving TD) and Joshua Mack (757 rush yards, six rush TDs) have brought significant production to the offensive gameplans for Liberty.
In the home locker room, Shai Werts has completed 43-of-84 passes for 529 yards, six TDs and zero INTs. Werts’ ANY/A stands at 5.50 for the season and 6.80 across his past two outings.
The Eagles will also try to dictate the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Shai Werts (zero receiving yards), Wesley Kennedy III (686 rush yards, 10 rush TDs) and Mark Michaud (122 receiving yards and two TDs) have gotten a lot of action recently.
Liberty Flames at Georgia Southern Eagles NCAA Prediction
SU Winner: Georgia Southern, ATS Winner: Georgia Southern, O/U: Over
Betting Trends
- The Liberty defense has 32 sacks on the year while Georgia Southern has just 23.
- Georgia Southern has lost 10 fumbles this season while Liberty has lost eight.
- The Flames offense has produced 16 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Eagles have accounted for one such play.
- The Liberty defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Georgia Southern has given up 13 such plays.
- The Liberty offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Georgia Southern has created 31 such runs.
- The Flames defense has allowed 18 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Eagles have given up 13 such runs.
- Liberty has averaged 5.1 yards per rush attempt over its last three games and 5.5 over its last two.
- Georgia Southern has averaged 5.5 yards per carry over its last three outings and 6.0 over its last two.
