The Liberty Flames (+17) aren’t traveling far to face the Virginia Cavaliers at David A. Harrison III Field at Scott Stadium. CHSS will televise the action and kickoff is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Virginia Cavaliers vs. Liberty Flames
The Flames head into this Saturday game as a significant underdog and they’re currently getting 17 points. If they want to take the moneyline, gamblers would currently need to spend $1,200 in order to win $100 back on the Wahoos (-1200). The Flames are getting +710 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 55 points, and if one program can get out in front early, it’ll probably result in a solid live betting scenario.
The sharp action has been siding with both the Flames and the over. The opening line was initially set at -19 while the O/U was originally just 53.5.
The Flames have lost 1.4 units this season and are 5-5 against the spread (ATS). They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U record of 4-6.
The Cavaliers are up 1.1 units this year. The team is 4-5-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 6-4.
The Flames are 6-4 straight up (SU) in 2019 while the Cavaliers are 7-3 SU.
The Flames fell to BYU 31-24 in a game where their D allowed the Cougars to pass for 306 yards and four touchdowns while rushing for 165 yards. Micah Simon had a productive day for the opposition in that one with 91 yards and a score on seven catches. On the offensive side, Stephen Calvert completed 27-of-45 passes for 303 yards and three touchdowns. Frankie Hickson (79 yards on 16 rush attempts) and Joshua Mack (40 yards on 12 carries) propelled the ground attack in the loss while Antonio Gandy-Golden (10 receptions, 162 yards, one TD) and Damian King (five catches, 50 yards) handled the receiving duties.
Virginia is coming off of a 33-28 win over Georgia Tech a couple of weeks ago. The defense let the Yellow Jackets run for 143 yards on 32 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Jordan Mason was a bright spot in the defeat for Georgia Tech, accounting for 94 rushing yards and a score on 19 attempts. For Virginia, Bryce Perkins completed 24-of-35 passes for 258 yards and one touchdown. Perkins (106 rushing yards on 21 attempts, one TD) and Wayne Taulapapa (37 yards on 10 carries, two TDs) handled the ground game in the win as Terrell Jana (nine receptions, 108 yards) and Joe Reed (five catches, 27 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.
Breaking down the offensive play-calling, each of these teams sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Liberty’s run the ball on 48.9 percent of its offensive possessions while Virginia has a rush percentage of 47.2. The Flames have rushed for 142.8 yards per game and have 18 scores via handoffs this year. The Wahoos are totaling 113.3 rushing yards per game and have 21 total rush TDs.
The Flames offensive scheme has logged 300.4 yards/game in the air overall and has 24 passing TDs so far. The Wahoos have recorded 255.1 pass yards per game and have 13 total pass scores.
On the defensive side of the ball, Liberty has allowed 193 rush yards and 231.3 pass yards per game. The Virginia defense has allowed 193.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 122.8 yards per game on the ground. The Wahoos are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.72 to opponents, while the Flames have given up a 6.60 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Calvert is up to 2,467 yards on the year, and has completed 60 percent of his 300 attempts with 19 scores through the air and only three interceptions. Calvert has a pristine 7.98 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 12.45 over the last two outings.
The Flames have tried to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to wideout Antonio Gandy-Golden (1,107 receiving yards and seven touchdowns), Joshua Mack (536 rush yards, five rush TDs, 94 receiving yards) and Frankie Hickson (538 rush yards, four rush TDs, one receiving TD) have been big focal points in the Liberty offensive scheme.
On the other sideline, Bryce Perkins has completed 196-of-310 passes for 2,053 yards, 10 TDs and eight INTs. Perkins’ ANY/A stands at 5.07 for the season and 8.72 over his last two outings.
The Wahoos will also try to control the game’s pace by turning to their backfield. In addition to Terrell Jana (432 receiving yards), Bryce Perkins (381 rush yards, six rush TDs) and Hasise Dubois (679 receiving yards and three TDs) have gotten plenty of touches recently.
When these two teams faced each other last year, Virginia won by three touchdowns 45-24.
Liberty Flames at Virginia Cavaliers Betting Pick
SU Winner: Virginia, ATS Winner: Virginia, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The Flames offense has tallied 14 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Cavaliers have put up four such plays.
- The Liberty defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Virginia has given up eight such plays.
- The Liberty offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Virginia has created seven such runs.
- The Flames defense has allowed 13 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Cavaliers have given up eight such runs.
- The Virginia defense has created 34 sacks on the year while Liberty has just 28.
- Liberty, as a team, has averaged 4.9 yards per carry across its last three contests and 4.9 over its last two.
- Virginia has averaged 3.9 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.2 over its past two.
- Over its last three contests, Virginia is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Liberty’s previous game was set at 63. The under cashed in the team’s 31-24 loss to BYU.
- In its last three contests, Liberty is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Virginia’s last game was set at 46.5. The over cashed in the 33-28 victory over Georgia Tech.
