The National Football League will be going to Mexico as the Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) are set to battle their AFC West rival Los Angeles Chargers at Estadio Azteca. This Monday Night matchup gets underway at 8:15 p.m. ET and ESPN will televise the action.
Thursday NightBetting Preview: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Kansas City Chiefs
In this Monday AFC matchup, Kansas City is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 3.5 points. The Chiefs are also receiving -160 moneyline odds while the Chargers are +140. Oddsmakers have determined the over/under (O/U) to be 52 points, and if one team catches a lucky break early, it would probably lead to a worthwhile betting opportunity in-game.
Sharp bettors have been hammering the over, as the game’s O/U was placed initially at just 49.
The Chiefs are down 2.8 units this season and 5-5 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 7-3.
The Chargers have lost 4.0 units for moneyline bettors so far. They’re 4-5-1 ATS and own an O/U record of 3-7.
The Chiefs are 6-4 straight up (SU), including 2-0 SU against AFC West opponents. The Chargers are 4-6 SU overall and 0-2 SU against divisional foes.
The Chiefs are looking to get back on track after a 35-32 loss to Tennessee in Week 10. The passing attack was on point as Patrick Mahomes completed 36 passes on 50 attempts for 446 yards and three touchdowns. Damien Williams (77 rushing yards on 19 attempts) led the ground attack in the loss while Tyreek Hill (11 receptions, 157 yards, one TD) and Travis Kelce (seven catches, 75 yards, one TD) manned the receiving duties.
Los Angeles narrowly suffered a 26-24 defeat to Oakland in Week 10. The defense did its duty in the loss, limiting the Raiders to only 218 passing yards and 78 yards on the ground. Josh Jacobs put up a productive outing for Oakland, posting 71 rushing yards and a score on 16 attempts, along with 30 yards on three catches. For Los Angeles, Philip Rivers completed 17-of-31 passes for 207 yards, two touchdowns and three interceptions. Melvin Gordon III (108 rushing yards on 22 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat while Keenan Allen (eight receptions, 68 yards) and Hunter Henry (four catches, 30 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.
Kansas City has run the ball on 35.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Los Angeles has an overall rush percentage of 38.4 percent. The Chiefs have produced 90.8 rush yards/game (including 55.5 per game versus West opponents) and have seven scores via handoffs this year. The Bolts are putting up 86.1 rush yards per game (90.5 in conference) and have seven total rushing TDs.
The Chiefs offense has tallied 328.5 yards per contest in the air overall (318 per game against conference opposition) and has 22 passing scores so far. The Bolts have recorded 282.3 pass yards per contest (209 in the AFC) and have 14 total pass TDs.
Defensively, Kansas City has let opponents run for an average of 148.1 yards and throw for 245.6 yards per game. The Los Angeles defense has allowed 223.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 110.5 yards per game on the ground. The Chiefs are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.07 to opposing QBs, while the Bolts have given up a 6.59 ANY/A.
Offensively, Mahomes is up to 2,626 passing yards this season, and has connected on 66 percent of his 291 attempts with 18 passing scores and only one interception. He has a pristine 9.50 adjusted net yards per pass attempt.
Look for a balanced attack offensively from Kansas City in this one. Tyreek Hill (403 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns this season), Damien Williams (177 rush yards, two rush TDs, 147 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Travis Kelce (679 receiving yards, three TDs) have all played big roles recently.
Philip Rivers has completed 219-of-336 passes for 2,522 yards, 14 TDs and 10 INTs for Los Angeles. His ANY/A stands at 6.31 for the season and 5.41 over his past two outings.
We’re thinking the Bolts will control the game’s pace by feeding the ball-carriers early and often. Along with WR Mike Williams (474 receiving yards this season), Melvin Gordon III (220 rush yards, two rush TDs, 62 receiving yards, one receiving TD) and Austin Ekeler (270 rush yards, three rush TDs, 536 receiving yards, six TDs) have been focal points in the Chargers’ recent offensive gameplans.
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers Free NFL Tip
SU Winner: Chargers, ATS Winner: Chargers, O/U: Under
Team Betting Notes
- The Kansas City defensive unit has 30 sacks on the year while Los Angeles has just 24.
- The Los Angeles offense has lost six fumbles this season while Kansas City has let nine get away.
- The Chiefs offense has recorded 14 pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Chargers have put up seven such plays.
- The Kansas City defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Los Angeles has given up two such plays.
- The Kansas City offense has created seven rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Los Angeles has created three such runs.
- The Chiefs defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Chargers have given up six such runs.
- The O/U for Los Angeles’ last outing was 49. The over cashed in that 26-24 loss to Oakland.
- Over its last three games, Los Angeles is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- In its last three matchups, Kansas City is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
- The Over/Under for Kansas City’s last game was 49. The over cashed in the team’s 35-32 loss to Tennessee.
- Kansas City, as a team, has averaged 5.3 yards per rush attempt across its last three outings and 5.7 over its last two.
- Los Angeles has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three matchups and 4.5 over its past two.
