The Kansas City Chiefs (-5) are coming into the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs as favorites against the Indianapolis Colts. NBC is scheduled to have the TV rights and this Saturday game gets underway at 4:35 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs
In this Saturday AFC game, Kansas City has been projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 5 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently have to put down $200 to win $100 back on the Chiefs (-200). The Colts are getting +170 moneyline odds. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 57 points. If Kansas City gets behind in the early stages, it would likely result in a nice live betting opportunity.
Sharp bettors are hammering both the Chiefs and the over. This line initially opened at -4 and the game’s total was originally only 55.5.
Both of these teams have been profitable this season as the Colts have gained 5.5 units and the Chiefs are up 7.0 units.
The Colts have gone 11-6 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Chiefs are 12-4 SU.
The Colts are looking to maintain momentum following a solid 21-7 win over Houston in Week 18. Andrew Luck completed 19 passes for 222 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Marlon Mack (148 rushing yards on 24 attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground attack. T.Y. Hilton (five receptions, 85 yards) and Chester Rogers (four catches, 46 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
The Kansas City Chiefs are coming off of a lopsided 35-3 win over Oakland. The defense allowed the Raiders to run for 127 yards on 29 rush attempts. Doug Martin had a productive showing in the loss, recording 100 rushing yards on 21 attempts for Oakland. For Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes completed 14-of-24 passes for 281 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Damien Williams (51 yards on 11 rush attempts, one TD) and Darrel Williams (31 yards on 11 carries) spearheaded the running game while Tyreek Hill (five receptions, 101 yards, one TD) and Travis Kelce (five catches, 62 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.
Each of these squads sports a strikingly similar (60-40 pass-to-run ratio on the season. The Colts have run for 112.8 yards per game and have 14 scores on the ground this year. The Chiefs are averaging 115.9 rush yards per game and have 16 total rushing TDs.
The Colts offense has tallied 283.4 yards/contest through the air overall and has 41 passing TDs so far. The Chiefs have produced 320.4 pass yards per outing and have 50 total pass scores.
Indianapolis seems to hold the upper hand in both areas of the defense. The team has let opponents run for an average of 101.8 yards and throw for 251.1 yards per game. The Kansas City D has allowed 295.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 132.1 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to opponents, as the Colts have given up an ANY/A of 5.92 to opposing QBs, while the Chiefs are allowing an ANY/A of 6.29.
Offensively, Luck has amassed 4,530 passing yards this season. The signal-caller has completed 67 percent of his 636 attempts with 38 scores through the air and 15 interceptions. He has a 6.87 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 7.50 over the last two outings.
As a group, Marlon Mack, T.Y. Hilton and Dontrelle Inman have combined for 548 total yards and four touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
Patrick Mahomes has managed to complete 360-of-540 passes for 4,824 yards, 47 TDs and 12 INTs for Kansas City. His ANY/A stands at 8.96 for the year and 9.25 over his past two games.
We also expect the Kansas City offense to utilize a balanced attack this Saturday. As a group, Tyreek Hill, Damien Williams and Travis Kelce have combined for 522 total yards and four touchdowns the last couple of games.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs NFL Prediction
SU Winner: Chiefs, ATS Winner: Chiefs, O/U: Under
Betting Trends
- The Colts offense has tallied seven pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Chiefs have accounted for 13 such plays.
- The Indianapolis defense has allowed four pass plays of 40+ yards, while Kansas City has given up eight such plays.
- The Indianapolis offense has created 12 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Kansas City has created 16 such runs.
- The Colts defense has allowed 12 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Chiefs have given up 11 such runs.
- The Kansas City defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 52 times this year. Indianapolis has produced just 41 sacks.
- Indianapolis has produced 4.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.0 over its last two.
- Kansas City has averaged 5.0 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.5 over its last two.
- In its last three matchups, Kansas City is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The Over/Under for Indianapolis’ last game was 49. The under cashed in the team’s 21-7 victory over Houston.
- In its last three matchups, Indianapolis is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Kansas City’s last outing going into it was 52.5. The under cashed in the 35-3 win over Oakland.
- Indianapolis has won 11 of its last 12 games SU, with a December 2nd defeat to Jacksonville accounting for the only loss over that span.
