The Indianapolis Colts (+4) are set to pay a visit to their AFC South rival Houston Texans (-4) at NRG Stadium. This Thursday Night Football showdown kicks off at 8:20 p.m. ET and FOX will televise the action.
Thursday Night FootballBetting Preview: Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans
In what may be an AFC postseason preview, Houston is getting picked as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 4 points. The Colts are also receiving +140 moneyline odds while the Texans are -160. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 47 points. There will probably be some decent live betting opportunities for the game.
Sharp bettors have been leaning toward the Colts. This line originally opened at -6 while the over/under was initially 46.5.
The Colts are down 2.1 units so far in 2019 and 4-5 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 5-4.
The Texans are up 2.5 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 5-4 ATS and own an O/U record of 4-5.
The Colts have gone 6-4 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against AFC South opponents. The Texans are 6-4 SU overall and 2-1 SU against divisional foes.
The Colts want to make it two in a row 33-13 victory over Jacksonville last week. Jacoby Brissett completed 15-of-24 passes for only 148 yards, as well as a TD and an interception. Marlon Mack (109 rushing yards on 14 attempts, one TD) and Jonathan Williams (116 yards on 13 carries) led the running attack in the win while Marcus Johnson (four receptions, 38 yards, one TD) and Eric Ebron (four catches, 27 yards) handled the receiving duties.
In Week 11, Baltimore knocked off this Houston team by a score of 41-7. The Texans defense allowed the Ravens to kill the clock by running for 263 yards on 36 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Gus Edwards had a productive showing, recording 112 rushing yards and a score on eight attempts for Baltimore. For Houston, Deshaun Watson completed 18-of-29 passes for 169 yards and one interception. Carlos Hyde (65 yards on nine rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat while DeAndre Hopkins (seven receptions, 80 yards) and Kenny Stills (four catches, 27 yards) led the receiving corps.
Indianapolis has run the ball on 48.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Houston has a rush percentage of 45.6 percent. The Colts have produced 141.1 rush yards/game (including 164.3 per game versus South opponents) and have seven touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Texans are logging 140.7 rushing yards per game (147.3 in conference) and have 11 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Colts might be the more disruptive team in the trenches. Their offensive line has yielded only 18 sacks while their D-line logged 38 sacks. The Texans, on the other hand, have given up 62 sacks and their defense has forced only 43 sacks.
The Colts offense has averaged 216.9 yards through the air overall (206.7 per game versus conference opposition) and has 19 passing TDs so far. The Texans have put up 260.1 pass yards per contest (223 against AFC foes) and have 18 total pass scores.
Indianapolis should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s allowed opponents to rush for an average of 96.8 yards and pass for 243.9 yards per game. The Houston defense has allowed 289.1 yards per game to opposing passers and 102.0 yards per game on the ground. The Colts are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.06 to opposing QBs, while the Texans have given up a 7.29 ANY/A.
Watson has been sharper than Brian Hoyer lately. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 6.79 for the year and 4.83 over his last two games while Hoyer’s ANY/A is 4.97 and 1.90 over his last two.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Houston Texans Free NFL Pick
SU Winner: Texans, ATS Winner: Colts, O/U: Under
Betting Trends
- The O/U for Indianapolis’ last game was set at 44.5. The over cashed in the team’s 33-13 victory over Jacksonville.
- Indianapolis, as a team, has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over its last three games and 5.7 over its last two.
- Houston has averaged 5.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and 6.3 over its last two.
- The Houston offense has lost six fumbles this season while Indianapolis has let seven get away.
- In its last three matchups, Indianapolis is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Houston’s last match was 46. The over cashed in the team’s 41-7 loss to Baltimore.
- In its last three contests, Houston is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Colts offense has produced one pass play of 40 or more yards, while the Texans have accounted for seven such plays.
- The Indianapolis defense has allowed four pass plays of 40+ yards, while Houston has given up seven such plays.
- The Indianapolis offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Houston has created 11 such runs.
- The Colts defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Texans have given up seven such runs.
- The Indianapolis defense has 25 sacks on the year while Houston has 22.
