In a battle featuring two schools with nearly opposite offensive systems, the Illinois Fighting Illini (+8) will be taking the field against their conference nemesis Purdue Boilermakers (-8) at Ross-Ade Stadium. BTN has the TV rights and this afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Betting Preview: Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Purdue Boilermakers
In this Saturday Big Ten game, Purdue is projected as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 8 points. The Fighting Illini are also receiving +250 moneyline odds while the Boilermakers are -330. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 58.5 points. On the surface it looks like this matchup may offer some in-game betting scenarios.
The Fighting Illini are down 4.0 units so far and 4-3 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 3-4.
The Boilermakers are down 5.0 units for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 4-3 ATS and have an O/U record of 4-3.
The Fighting Illini have gone 3-4 straight up (SU), including 1-3 SU against conference opponents. The Boilermakers are 2-5 SU overall and 1-3 SU in conference play.
The Fighting Illini enter after a 24-23 win over Wisconsin last week. Brandon Peters completed only nine-of-21 passes for 174 yards and two touchdowns. Reggie Corbin (83 yards on 17 rushes, one TD) and Dre Brown (70 yards on 11 carries) led the ground attack in the win while Daniel Barker (three receptions, 37 yards) and Josh Imatorbhebhe (two catches, 42 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties.
One week ago, Iowa knocked off this Purdue crew by a score of 26-20. The Boilermakers defensive unit allowed the Hawkeyes to eat up the clock by running for 102 yards on 33 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Brandon Smith put up a productive outing for Iowa, recording 106 yards and a score on nine catches. For Purdue, Jack Plummer completed 30-of-50 passes for 327 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. King Doerue (26 yards on 10 rush attempts) spearheaded the ground attack in the defeat while David Bell (13 receptions, 197 yards, one TD) and Brycen Hopkins (five catches, 51 yards) led the pass-catching attack.
Illinois has run the ball on 55.7 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Purdue has an overall rush percentage of 38.4 percent. The Fighting Illini have produced 145.9 rush yards per game (including 129.3 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 12 scores via handoffs this year. The Boilermakers are totaling 59.1 rushing yards per game (66 in conference) and have four total rush TDs.
The Fighting Illini offense has tallied 188.4 yards per game in the air overall (150.3 per game against conference opposition) and has 13 passing TDs so far. The Boilermakers have put up 324.9 pass yards per contest (290 against Big 10 competition) and have 18 total pass scores.
Illinois seems to possess an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team’s allowed opponents to run for an average of 195.3 yards and throw for 237.1 yards per game. The Purdue defense has allowed 275.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 157.3 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Fighting Illini have given up an ANY/A of 7.35 to opposing QBs, while the Boilermakers are allowing an ANY/A of 6.97.
Plummer has connected on 79-of-147 passes for 872 yards, six TDs and five INTs. Plummer’s adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at a horrendous 3.98 for the year and 8.43 over his past two games. In the other huddle, Matt Robinson has put up 348 passing yards this year, and has connected on 32-of-57 attempts with one passing touchdowns and has yet to throw an interception. Robinson has a 4.61 ANY/A, including 5.70 over the last two games.
When these two teams faced one another a year ago, Purdue knocked off Illinois easily 46-7.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers Free Pick
SU Winner: Purdue, ATS Winner: Purdue, O/U: Under
Betting Notes
- The Over/Under for Illinois’ last game was 52. The under cashed in the team’s 24-23 victory over Wisconsin.
- As a team, Illinois has rushed for 2.8 yards per attempt across its past three games and 2.6 over its last two.
- Purdue has averaged 1.7 yards per carry over its last three contests and 2.9 over its past two.
- Both teams have lost six fumbles this season.
- In its last three matchups, Illinois is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Purdue’s last match was 47.5. The under cashed in the 26-20 loss to Iowa.
- In its last three contests, Purdue is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The Fighting Illini offense has produced two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Boilermakers have accounted for eight such plays.
- The Illinois defense has allowed five pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Purdue has given up nine such plays.
- The Illinois offense has created 11 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while Purdue has created one such runs.
- The Fighting Illini defense has allowed 15 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Boilermakers have given up 12 such runs.
- The Illinois D has sacked opposing QBs 17 times this season. Purdue has recorded 15 sacks.
