A couple of teams that prefer to run the football, Head Coach Lovie Smith and the Illinois Fighting Illini (+16) are set to face off against the No. 19 Iowa Hawkeyes (-16) at Kinnick Stadium. This pivotal Big 10 matchup kicks off at 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to BTN.
Betting Preview: Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Illinois is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 16 points in this Big 10 game. The Fighting Illini are also receiving +600 moneyline odds while the Hawkeyes are -945. If one side can create a bunch of points in the early stages it’ll result in a worthwhile in-game betting scenario. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 46.5 points.
The sharp action is siding with the Hawkeyes, as the opening line was -12. The over/under has not changed after being initially set at 46.5.
Each of these teams has rewarded gamblers this year as the Fighting Illini have gained 6.2 units and the Hawkeyes are up 2.0 units.
The Fighting Illini are 6-4 straight up (SU), including 4-3 SU against conference opponents. The Hawkeyes are 7-3 SU overall and 4-3 SU in conference play.
When these two teams faced one another a year ago, Iowa won by a landslide 63-0.
The Fighting Illini look to keep it rolling after a 37-34 victory over Michigan State on November 9Their defense allowed the Spartans to run for 275 yards on 51 rush attempts, including three rush TDs. Elijah Collins was on a different level for the Spartans in that one with 170 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 28 attempts. On the offense, Brandon Peters completed only 22 passes on 42 attempts for 369 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Dre Brown (19 yards on nine rush attempts) led the running attack. Donny Navarro (seven receptions, 49 yards) and Josh Imatorbhebhe (four catches, 178 yards, two TDs) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Iowa takes the field on Saturday following a 23-19 win over Minnesota. The defensive secondary allowed the Golden Gophers to air it out for 368 yards. Tyler Johnson was outstandingfor the Golden Gophers, recording 170 yards on nine catches. For Iowa, Nate Stanley completed 14-of-23 passes for 173 yards and two touchdowns. Tyler Goodson (94 yards on 13 rush attempts, one TD) spearheaded the running attack as Tyrone Tracy Jr. (six receptions, 77 yards) and Ihmir Smith-Marsette (four catches, 43 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.
Illinois has run the ball on 59 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Iowa has an overall rush percentage of 52.4 percent. The Fighting Illini have produced 150.3 rush yards/game (including 142.7 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have 17 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Hawkeyes are putting up 137 rushing yards per game (99.1 in conference) and have 11 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Hawkeyes could own the edge along both the offensive and defensive fronts. Their offensive line has yielded just 21 sacks while the D-line has logged 23 sacks. The Fighting Illini offensive line has allowed 31 sacks and their defense has recorded only 22 sacks.
The Fighting Illini offense has averaged 183.4 yards through the air overall (159.4 per game versus conference opposition) and has 17 passing TDs so far. The Hawkeyes have recorded 235.6 pass yards per outing (230 in the Big 10) and have 14 total pass scores.
Defensively, Illinois has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 196.2 yards and pass for 213.3 yards per game. The Iowa D has allowed 196.6 yards per game to opposing passers and 106.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Hawkeyes are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.02 to opposing QBs, while the Fighting Illini have allowed a 6.27 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Peters is up to 1,366 yards this year. He’s completed 55 percent of his 196 attempts with 15 passing scores and five interceptions. Peters has a 6.05 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.57 over the last two outings.
As a group, Josh Imatorbhebhe, Reggie Corbin and Donny Navarro have combined for 448 total yards and four touchdowns over the last two outings.
For the home team, Nate Stanley has connected on 173-of-285 passes for 2,123 yards, 12 TDs and five INTs. Stanley’s ANY/A stands at 6.39 for the year and 7.93 over his last two games.
As a trio, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Tyler Goodson and Ihmir Smith-Marsette have collectively accounted for 413 total yards and three touchdowns over the last two outings.
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes NCAA Tip
SU Winner: Iowa, ATS Winner: Iowa, O/U: Under
Team Betting Trends
- The Iowa offense has lost four fumbles this season while Illinois has lost seven.
- The Iowa defense has sacked opposing QBs 23 times this year. Illinois has recorded 22 sacks.
- Illinois, as a team, has produced 3.9 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.4 over its last two.
- Iowa has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 3.8 over its last two.
- In its last three matchups, Iowa is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Illinois’ last game was 47.5. The over cashed in the team’s 37-34 win over Michigan State.
- In its last three matchups, Illinois is 3-0 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Iowa’s previous match was set at 45. The under cashed in the 23-19 victory over Minnesota.
- Iowa has won four of its last five games SU, with a -2-point loss to Wisconsin on November 9th accounting for its one defeat over that stretch.
