Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets ATS Prediction 01/26/20

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The Houston Rockets (28-16) will travel to the Pepsi Center to square off against the Denver Nuggets (31-14). The game will air on NBATV at 3:30 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 26, 2020.

Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Odds

Both teams covered in their last contest. The Nuggets (4-point underdogs) defeated the New Orleans Pelicans 113-106, while the Rockets (5.5-point favorite) beat the Minnesota Timberwolves 131-124. The Denver game finished 10.5 points under the projected point total of 229.5, while the Houston game went 20.5 points over the projected point total of 234.5.

Houston dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had a superb free throw rate of 0.286 (above their season average of 0.227) and a turnover percentage of 8.7 (better than their season average of 12.5). For those same stats, Minnesota was 0.173 and 13.7, respectively. Meanwhile, Denver’s turnover percentage was their biggest strength over New Orleans. The Nuggets had a rate of 8.7 (better than their season average of 11.4), while the Pelicans posted a mark of 15.2. Nikola Jokic led the way for Denver, recording 27 points, 12 rebounds and seven assists. Russell Westbrook played a key role for Houston with 45 points, 10 assists and six rebounds.

In the season series between these two teams, the Rockets lead two games to one. In their most recent game, the two teams combined for 226 points, just under the projected point total of 226.5. Houston won 121-105, covering as a 10-point favorite. Houston was effective at getting and making free throws. The Rockets made 24 of their 28 free throws (85.7 percent), while the Nuggets were 11-15 (73.3 percent). Westbrook recorded a double-double with 28 points and 16 rebounds.

Vegas has a tendency to set the total high when the Rockets are playing, as 25 of their 44 games have gone under the total. Houston holds records of 28-16 straight up (SU) and 22-22 against the spread (ATS).

Nuggets games also have a tendency to finish under the O/U total (60.0 percent). Denver has a solid 31-14 SU record, but they are just 18-21-6 ATS.

The Rockets’ Westbrook has been playing well over his last five games, averaging 31 points,10.6 rebounds,9.8 assists,2.4 steals per game. Meanwhile, Jokic has averaged 20 points,11.0 rebounds,7.0 assists,1.2 steals during that same time frame for the Nuggets.

Denver could dominate the offensive glass in this matchup. The Nuggets currently rank first in offensive rebounding percentage (25.3 percent), while Houston ranks 21st in defensive rebounding percentage (76.6 percent). Opposite paces will be on display in this contest. The fast-paced Rockets rank fourth in possessions per game, while the more half-court oriented Nuggets rank 27th.

Houston Rockets vs. Denver Nuggets Betting Pick

Prediction: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under

Betting Notes:

  • The Nuggets average 8.1 steals per game, which ranks ninth in the league. The Rockets rank 20th in steals allowed per game (8.0).
  • Houston ranks first in three pointers attempted per game (43.5) while Denver ranks 26th (30.0).
  • The Nuggets rank 10th in fast break points allowed per game (12.4) while the Rockets rank 29th (16.0).
  • Denver ranks sixth in points in the paint per game (50.0) while Houston ranks 24th in points allowed in the paint per game (51.0).
  • Houston ranks fifth in rebounds per game (47.1) while Denver ranks 19th (44.9).
  • The Nuggets average 26.2 assists per game, which ranks fourth in the league. The Rockets rank 28th in assists allowed per game (25.6).
  • The Nuggets rank sixth in second chance points per game (14.4) while the Rockets rank 21st in second chance points allowed per game (13.6).
  • Denver ranks third in points off turnovers allowed per game (14.5) while Houston ranks 24th (18.5).
  • Denver is 11-1 when they allow less than 100 points, while Houston is 3-0.
  • The Rockets are 28-14 when they reach the century mark, while the Nuggets are 29-10.
  • Houston is 11-11 ATS on the road, while Denver is 8-12-3 ATS at home.
  • The Rockets have 14 unders and 8 overs in 22 road games.
  • The Nuggets have 15 unders and 8 overs in 23 home games.

Bettings Trends:

  • In their last five games, Houston and Denver have both had 3 unders and 2 overs.
  • The Nuggets are 2-2-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Rockets are 2-3.
  • During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 113.2 points per game (3.9 above their season average) and allowed an average of 114.6 points per game (8.6 above their season average).
  • The Rockets have been outscored by an average of 0.2 points in their last five games. For the season, Houston has defeated opponents by an average of 4.5 points.