Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints: Week 12 Betting Free Pick

The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints will go toe-to-toe on the dome at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Kickoff for this game is set for 8:20 p.m. ET and NBC is scheduled to have the TV rights.

Thursday Night FootballBetting Preview: Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints

Atlanta is a significant road underdog in this NFC game and is currently getting 13 points. If they are wanting to play the moneyline, gamblers would currently have to put up $800 in order to win $100 back on the Saints (-800). The Falcons are getting +500 moneyline odds. This NFC matchup should provide several decent live betting scenarios, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 60 points.

The early action has moved in the direction of both the Saints and the over. The opening line was originally set at -12 and the over/under was initially 59.

The less-than-stellar Falcons are down 4.7 units so far in 2018 and 3-7 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an Over-Under record of 6-4.

The surprising Saints have gained 4.8 units this season. They’re 8-2 ATS and have an even O/U record of 5-5.

The Falcons are just 4-6 straight up (SU), including 2-1 SU against NFC South opponents. The Saints are 9-1 SU overall and 1-1 SU versus divisional foes.

New Orleans enters this one on a two-game losing streak while Atlanta has come out on top in its last nine in a row. The Falcons are trying to get back in stride after a 22-19 defeat to Dallas last week in which Matt Ryan completed 24-of-34 passes for 291 yards, along with one TD and an interception. Tevin Coleman (58 rushing yards on eight attempts) provided the ground attack while Julio Jones (six receptions, 118 yards, one TD) and Mohamed Sanu (four catches, 56 yards) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.

New Orleans enters this one having just earned a 48-7 win over Philadelphia in Week 11. The defense did its duty in the victory, limiting the Eagles to just 156 passing yards and 58 rushing yards. Josh Adams had a good outing in the loss for Philadelphia, recording 53 rushing yards and a score on seven attempts. For New Orleans, Drew Brees completed 22-of-30 passes for 363 yards and four touchdowns. Mark Ingram (103 yards on 16 rush attempts, two TDs) and Alvin Kamara (71 yards on 13 carries) handled the running game while Tre’Quan Smith (10 receptions, 157 yards, one TD) and Michael Thomas (four catches, 92 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

Atlanta has run the ball on 35.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while New Orleans has an overall rush percentage of 47.9 percent. The Falcons have run for 88.8 yards per game (including 96.0 per game versus South opponents) and have eight touchdowns on the ground this year. The Saints are putting up 131.4 rushing yards per game (93.0 in conference) and have 19 total rush TDs.

It appears that the Saints ought to have the edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has generated 4.2 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 3.7 to opponents. The Falcons have tallied 4.1 yards per carry while allowing 5.1 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Falcons offensive scheme has tallied 332.6 yards per game in the air overall (333.7 per game against conference opposition) and has 22 passing TDs so far. The Saints have recorded 302.8 pass yards per contest (418 against NFC foes) and have 25 total pass scores.

Atlanta has allowed opponents to run for an average of 121.1 yards and pass for 297.4 yards per game. The New Orleans defense has allowed 295.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 77.9 yards per game on the ground. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Falcons have given up an ANY/A of 7.33 to opposing QBs, while the Saints are allowing an ANY/A of 7.43.

Brees has been more efficient than Ryan of late. The Saints man under center has an adjusted net yards per pass attempt 9.51 for the season and 13.96 across his past two games while Ryan’s ANY/A is 8.43 and 6.59 over the last two outings.

Atlanta Falcons vs. New Orleans Saints Betting Prediction

SU Winner: Saints, ATS Winner: Saints, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

The Over/Under for Atlanta’s last game was set at 50. The under cashed in the team’s 22-19 defeat to Dallas.

Atlanta has averaged 5.0 yards per rush attempt over its past three games and 4.1 over its last two.

New Orleans has averaged 4.7 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.0 over its last two.

New Orleans has lost seven fumbles this season while Atlanta has let four get away.

In its last three games, Atlanta is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for New Orleans’ last outing going into it was 56.5. The under cashed in the team’s 48-7 win over Philadelphia.

Over its last three contests, New Orleans is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The Falcons offense has created six pass plays of 40+ yards, while the Saints have put up four such plays.

The Atlanta defense has allowed six pass plays of 40 or more yards, while New Orleans has given up nine such plays.

The Atlanta offense has created four rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while New Orleans has created five such runs.

The Falcons defense has allowed 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Saints have given up five such runs.

The New Orleans defense has registered 24 sacks on the year while Atlanta has 19.