In the final iteration of the 2019 regular season, the Green Bay Packers (-10) are gearing up to take on the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. This NFC North showdown starts at 1:00 p.m. ET and FOX is in line to broadcast the action.
Betting Preview: Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers
Detroit is a big underdog in this NFC matchup and is currently getting 10 points. The Packers are also receiving -475 moneyline odds while the Lions are +325. If one team catches a lucky break early it’ll produce a reasonable in-game betting opportunity. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 41.5 points.
This game’s line opened at 9.5. The O/U has yet to move after it was set initially at 41.5.
The profitable Packers are 9-5 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 7.3 units so far. They’ve been a decent under bet and have posted an O/U record of 6-8.
The hapless Lions have lost 8.2 units this season. They’re 6-9 ATS and 10 of their games have gone over the total.
The Packers are 12-3 straight up (SU), including 5-0 SU against NFC North opponents. The Lions are 3-11-1 SU overall and 0-5 SU versus divisional foes.
Green Bay enters this matchup on a zero-game losing streak while Detroit has won zero in a row. The Packers are looking to keep things going after a solid 23-10 win over Minnesota in Week 16. Aaron Rodgers completed 26-of-40 passes for 216 yards and one interception. Aaron Jones (154 rushing yards on 23 attempts, two TDs) spearheaded the running attack while Davante Adams (13 receptions, 116 yards) and Allen Lazard (five catches, 45 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Back in Week 16, Denver got the victory against this Detroit team by a score of 27-17. The Lions defense allowed the Broncos to eat up the clock by running for 150 yards on 33 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Phillip Lindsay put up a productive showing in the win for Denver, recording 109 rushing yards and a score on 19 attempts. For Detroit, David Blough completed 12-of-24 passes for 117 yards and one touchdown. Kerryon Johnson (42 yards on 10 rush attempts) mounted the running game as Kenny Golladay (six receptions, 66 yards, one TD) and Danny Amendola (two catches, 21 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Each squad has a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Green Bay has run the ball on 42.4 percent of its offensive possessions while Detroit has an overall rush percentage of 41.4. The Packers have produced 111.7 rush yards/game (including 129 per game against North opponents) and have 18 scores on the ground this year. The Lions are totaling 98.5 rush yards per game (82 in conference) and have six total rushing TDs.
If 2019 results are any indication, then the Packers might have the more disruptive lines up front. Their offensive line has yielded just 53 sacks while the D-line registered 44 sacks. The Lions, on the other hand, have given up 41 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs on just 43 occasions.
The Packers offensive scheme has tallied 246.3 yards per game in the air overall (222.8 per game versus conference opposition) and has 24 passing TDs so far. The Lions have recorded 269.7 pass yards per game (277 against NFC competition) and have 27 total pass scores.
Defensively, Green Bay appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 116.7 rush yards and 258.3 pass yards per game. The Detroit D has given up 294.4 yards per game to opposing passers and 115.7 yards per game on the ground. The Packers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.80 to opposing QBs, while the Lions have allowed a 7.87 ANY/A.
Offensively, Rodgers has amassed 3,476 passing yards this season. He’s completed 64 percent of his 481 attempts with 23 scores through the air and only three interceptions. Rodgers has a 6.87 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 4.75 over the last two outings.
The Packers have tried to control tempo by feeding their running backs early and often. In addition to wideout Davante Adams (801 receiving yards and three touchdowns), Aaron Jones (933 rush yards, 14 rush TDs, three receiving TDs) and Jamaal Williams (434 rush yards, one rush TD, five receiving TDs) have been focal points in the Green Bay offensive scheme.
David Blough has managed to complete 58-of-102 passes for 602 yards, four TDs and three INTs for Detroit. His ANY/A sits at an ultra-pedestrian 4.07 for the year and 3.77 across his past two games.
The Lions also like to keep their RBs involved. In addition to Danny Amendola (560 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Kenny Golladay (1,074 receiving yards and 11 receiving TDs) and Chris Lacy (zero receiving yards) have gotten quite a few touches lately.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions Free NFL Pick
SU Winner: Packers, ATS Winner: Packers, O/U: Over
Team Betting Trends
- The Over/Under for Green Bay’s last game going into it was 40.5. The under cashed in the team’s 23-10 win over Minnesota.
- Green Bay has produced 5.5 yards per carry across its past three outings and 5.1 over its last two.
- Detroit has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.6 over its last two.
- The Detroit offense has lost eight fumbles this season while Green Bay has let nine get away.
- In its last three contests, Green Bay is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
- The O/U for Detroit’s last matchup going into it was 40. The over cashed in the team’s 27-17 defeat to Denver.
- Over its last three matches, Detroit is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
- Detroit has dropped 12 of its last 13 games SU, with a five-point win over New York on October 27th accounting for its lone victory over that stretch.
- The Packers offense has created 11 pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Lions have put up 12 such plays.
- The Green Bay defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40+ yards, while Detroit has given up 10 such plays.
- The Green Bay offense has created seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Detroit has created four such runs.
- Both defenses have allowed six rushing plays of 20 or more yards. The Packers have given up 33 running plays of 10+ yards while the Lions have given up 34 such plays.
- The Green Bay D has 40 sacks on the year while Detroit has just 27.
