A seven-game home winning streak hangs in the balance for the New Mexico Lobos (13-3, 2-1 MWC) when they take on the Fresno State Bulldogs (5-10, 1-3 MWC) at Dreamstyle Arena. Action gets underway at 11 p.m. ET on Tuesday, January 7, 2020, and can be seen on ESPNU.
Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico Lobos ATS Odds
In the Bulldogs’ last matchup, they covered the 12-point spread against the San Jose State Spartans, 79-64. The Lobos, on the other hand, were topped by the San Jose State Spartans, 88-85, and were unable to cover as 10-point underdogs. Both games went over their projected point totals. The Fresno State game went 5 points over the projected point total of 138, while the New Mexico game went 20.5 points over the projected point total of 152.5.
Fresno State dominated nearly every facet of the game. They had an absurd effective field goal percentage of 0.605 (above their season average of 0.496) and a turnover percentage of 12.4 (better than their season average of 17.0). For those same stats, San Jose State recorded marks of 0.491 and 15.1, respectively. New Mexico, on the other hand, did a great job of getting to and converting from the charity stripe (19-27; 70.4 percent). New Mexico was led by Vance Jackson, who had 25 points and 13 rebounds. Orlando Robinson played well for Fresno State, finishing with 23 points and 14 rebounds.
The Bulldogs dominated this series last year, winning both games. In the most recent matchup, Fresno State won 81-73. The Bulldogs’ turnover percentage was their largest strength over the Lobos. Fresno State had a rate of 7.8, while New Mexico posted a mark of 16.4. This is the first time these teams will meet this year.
Of the Bulldogs’ 13 games that accepted bets, eight have gone over the total. Fresno State heads into the game with records of 5-10 straight up (SU) and 6-6-1 against the spread (ATS).
Much like Fresno State, games including the Lobos also have a tendency to finish over the projected point total (60.0 percent). Further, New Mexico owns records of 13-3 SU and 7-8 ATS.
It will be a showdown of contrasting paces as the up-tempo Lobos will look to push the more grind-it-out Bulldogs. The Lobos rank 52nd in possessions per game while the Bulldogs are 303rd.
Fresno State Bulldogs at New Mexico Lobos Free Pick
Free College Basketball Pick: SU Winner – New Mexico, ATS Winner – Fresno State, O/U – Over
Betting Notes:
- Fresno State ranks 13th in three pointers attempted per game (29.2) while New Mexico ranks 252nd in three pointers allowed per game (27.1).
- The Lobos rank 51st in steals per game (8.1) while the Bulldogs rank 65th in steals allowed per game (5.8).
- Fresno State is 33rd in the NCAA with 2.5 blocks allowed per game while New Mexico is 37th with 2.6 blocks allowed per game.
- The Bulldogs rank 49th in assists allowed per game (10.8) while the Lobos rank 228th (16.3).
- New Mexico averages 37.9 rebounds per game, which ranks 92nd in the country. Fresno State ranks 110th in rebounds allowed per game (34.3).
- New Mexico is 4-5 ATS at home, while Fresno State is 4-3 ATS on the road.
- The total has gone over in 6 of the Lobos’ 9 home games, while 4 of the Bulldogs’ 7 road games have gone over.
Bettings Trends:
- The Bulldogs are 3-1-1 ATS over their last five games, while the Lobos are 2-3.
- In their last five games, Fresno State has 3 unders and 2 overs, while New Mexico has 3 overs and 2 unders.
- During their last five games, the Bulldogs have scored an average of 70.4 points per game (0.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 64.0 points per game (1.9 below their season average).
- The Lobos’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 9.6, up from 8.0 for the season.
