Utah State Aggies at New Mexico Lobos College Football Betting Free Pick

Two schools that like to keep it on the ground, Coach Bob Davie and the New Mexico Lobos (+23) are set to pay a visit to their in-conference foe Utah State Aggies at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium. STAD,FCBK will broadcast the action and kickoff is scheduled for 4:00 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: New Mexico Lobos vs. Utah State Aggies

Utah State has been tabbed as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 23 points to New Mexico. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 63.5 points, and some good live betting opportunities could be unveiled during this game.

Odds have moved from where they were originally posted. The line opened at -24, while the game’s total has yet to change after being set initially at 63.5.

The Lobos are down 1.6 units this season and 3-4 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 4-2.

The surprising Aggies are up 3.0 units in 2018. The team is 6-1 ATS and the over’s hit in six of its games.

The Lobos are 3-4 straight up (SU), including 1-2 SU against conference opponents. The Aggies are 6-1 SU overall and 3-0 SU in conference play.

New Mexico enters this one on a six-game winning streak while Utah State has come up short in each of its last two. The Lobos are most-recently reeling from a 38-7 loss to Fresno State last week where Sheriron Jones completed just 15-of-32 passes for 147 yards, along with one score and a pick. Tyrone Owens (83 yards on 19 rush attempts) and the signal-caller Jones (42 yards on 10 carries) spearheaded the ground attack in the loss. Patrick Reed (three receptions, 28 yards) and Delane Hart-Johnson (three catches, 25 yards) handled the receiving duties.

The Utah State Aggies take the field on Saturday having just earned a 24-16 win over Wyoming. The team’s defense allowed the Cowboys to run for 231 yards on 50 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Nico Evans was on a different level for Wyoming, recording 133 rushing yards and a score on 25 attempts, along with 40 yards on two catches. For Utah State, Jordan Love completed 12-of-28 passes for 53 yards and one interception. Darwin Thompson (109 rushing yards on 17 attempts, two TDs) and Gerold Bright (35 yards on 12 carries) handled the ground game in the win as Jordan Nathan (three receptions, 12 yards) and Bright (three catches, six yards) led the receiving attack.

New Mexico has run the ball on 64.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Utah State has a rush percentage of 51.5 percent. The Lobos have run for 191.3 yards/game (including 178.0 per game against Mountain West opponents) and have 14 scores via handoffs this year. The Aggies are logging 190.4 rushing yards per game (165.0 in conference) and have 22 total rush TDs.

It appears that the Aggies should have the edge in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has logged 5.3 yards per carry while their defense is allowing 3.6 YPC to opponents. The Lobos have rushed for 4.1 yards per carry while allowing 4.2 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Lobos offensive scheme has averaged 221.9 yards through the air overall (187.3 per game versus conference opposition) and has 18 passing TDs so far. The Aggies have put up 247.6 pass yards per outing (262 in the MWC) and have 14 total pass scores.

Defensively, New Mexico has allowed opponents to run for an average of 169.1 yards and pass for 272.6 yards per game. The Utah State defense has allowed 193.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 167.6 yards per game on the ground. The Aggies are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.17 to opponents, while the Lobos have given up a 6.35 ANY/A.

Love has managed to complete 120-of-191 passes for 1,288 yards, nine TDs and four INTs for Utah State. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt sits at 6.31 for the season and 8.15 over his past two outings. In the other huddle, Jones is up to 937 passing yards this season. He’s connected on 65-of-117 attempts with 11 passing touchdowns and seven interceptions. Jones has a 6.66 ANY/A, including 5.73 over the last two outings.

These two squads met last year with the final result being a 24-10 victory for Utah State.

New Mexico Lobos vs. Utah State Aggies Betting Pick

SU Winner: Utah State, ATS Winner: New Mexico, O/U: Over

Team Betting Notes

The Utah State defensive unit has produced 20 sacks on the year while New Mexico has 16.

The Utah State offense has lost six fumbles in 2018 while the New Mexico offense has lost five.

The Lobos offense has produced seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Aggies have accounted for three such plays.

The New Mexico defense has allowed seven pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Utah State has given up four such plays.

The New Mexico offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Utah State has created 16 such runs.

The Lobos defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Aggies have given up 10 such runs.

The O/U for Utah State’s previous matchup was 50.5. The under cashed in the 24-16 victory over Wyoming.

In its last three matchups, Utah State is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

Over its last three matchups, New Mexico is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

New Mexico has lost four of its last five games SU, with a 36-point victory over UNLV on October 6th representing the only win over that stretch.

The O/U for New Mexico’s previous game was 52. The under cashed in the team’s 38-7 loss to Fresno State.

New Mexico, as a team, has rushed for 4.2 yards per attempt over its last three games and 4.1 over its last two.

Utah State has averaged 5.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.1 over its past two.