SMU Mustangs at Cincinnati Bearcats NCAA Football Free Betting Pick

The Cincinnati Bearcats (-8) are heading southwest to face their in-conference foe SMU Mustangs at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. CBS Sports Network has the TV rights and kickoff will take place at 3:30 p.m. ET.

Betting Preview: Cincinnati Bearcats vs. SMU Mustangs

In this Saturday American Athletic Conference game, Cincinnati is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 8 points. The Bearcats are also receiving -340 moneyline odds while the Mustangs are +260. If one school catches a lucky break early on it will result in a nice in-game betting scenario. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 54.5 points.

This game’s opening line was 8.5. The total has yet to change since being set initially at 54.5.

Both of these teams have been profitable this year as the Bearcats have gained 8.0 units while the Mustangs are up 4.0 units.

The Bearcats are 6-1 straight up (SU), including 2-1 SU against conference opponents. The Mustangs are 3-4 SU overall and 2-1 SU in conference play.

The Bearcats came up short to Temple 24-17 in a game where the passing attack wasn’t where it needed to be as Desmond Ridder completed only 14 passes on 33 attempts for 111 yards and one interception. Michael Warren II (132 rushing yards on 25 attempts, one TD) and the signal-caller Ridder (nine yards on 16 carries) led the ground attack in the loss. Bruno Labelle (three receptions, 27 yards) and Josiah Deguara (three catches, 25 yards) shared the receiving duties.

The SMU Mustangs are coming off of a 27-23 win over Tulane. The defense allowed the Green Wave to run for 168 yards on 46 rush attempts, including two rush TDs. Stephon Huderson was a bright spot in the loss for Tulane, recording 42 rushing yards on six attempts, along with 39 yards and a score on three catches. For SMU, Ben Hicks completed 21-of-40 passes for 291 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Braeden West (51 rushing yards on 12 attempts, one TD) handled the ground game in the win as Reggie Roberson, Jr. (seven receptions, 99 yards, one TD) and James Proche (six catches, 93 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.

Cincinnati has run the ball on 65.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while SMU has a rush percentage of 49.3 percent. The Bearcats have rushed for 247.6 yards per game (including 264.0 per game versus American Athletic Conference opponents) and have 24 scores via handoffs this year. The Mustangs are logging 109.4 rush yards per game (92.3 in conference) and have eight total rushing TDs.

It seems like the Bearcats should have the edge when it comes to RB efficiency. Their backfield has produced 5.1 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 3.7 to opponents. The Mustangs have registered 3.2 yards per carry and given up 4.2 yards per rush attempt to opponents.

The Bearcats offense has tallied 197.9 yards/contest in the air overall (208.0 per game versus conference opposition) and has 10 passing TDs so far. The Mustangs have recorded 239.3 pass yards per contest (231 in the AAC) and have 17 total pass scores.

Defensively, Cincinnati appears to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 114.3 yards and pass for 166.1 yards per game. The SMU defense has given up 222.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 191.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Bearcats are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.64 to opponents, while the Mustangs have given up a 6.61 ANY/A.

Hicks has completed 69-of-133 passes for 844 yards, eight TDs and three INTs for SMU. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 5.35 for the year and 6.76 over his past two outings. In the other huddle, Ridder has put up 999 passing yards this year, and has completed 81-of-133 attempts with eight passing touchdowns and only two interceptions. Ridder has a 7.19 ANY/A for the year, although that number is 3.05 over the last two games.

These two schools faced off last year with the final outcome being a 31-28 victory for SMU.

Cincinnati Bearcats at SMU Mustangs Free Prediction

SU Winner: Cincinnati, ATS Winner: Cincinnati, O/U: Under

Team Betting Trends

The O/U for Cincinnati’s last game going into it was 47. The under cashed in the team’s 24-17 defeat to Temple.

Cincinnati, as a team, has produced 5.4 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.0 over its last two.

SMU has averaged 3.0 yards per carry over its last three matchups and only 1.7 over its last two.

SMU has lost four fumbles this season while Cincinnati has let six get away.

In its last three games, Cincinnati is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

The O/U for SMU’s previous game was set at 55. The under cashed in that 27-23 victory over Tulane.

Over its last three games, SMU is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

SMU has won four of its last five games SU, with a -28-point defeat to UCF on October 6th representing the only loss over that span.

The Bearcats offense has registered three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Mustangs have accounted for nine such plays.

Both teams have allowed three pass plays of 40 or more yards. The Cincinnati defense has given up seven pass plays of 30+ yards while SMU has given up eight such plays.

The Cincinnati offense has created 17 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while SMU has created seven such runs.

The Bearcats defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Mustangs have given up eight such runs.

Each team defense has produced 13 sacks this year.