The San Diego State Aztecs (-2.5) are heading east to visit the Nevada Wolf Pack at Clarence Mackay Stadium. This showdown will kick off pretty late for bettors on the East Coast (10:30 p.m. ET) and fans can catch it live by tuning in to ESPNU.
Betting Preview: Nevada Wolf Pack vs. San Diego State Aztecs
In this Saturday Mountain West matchup, San Diego State is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 2.5 points. The Aztecs are also receiving -140 moneyline odds while the Wolf Pack are +120. If one program finds paydirt early it will create a solid live betting scenario. Vegas has determined the over/under (O/U) to be 47.5 points.
Odds have moved some from when they were originally posted. The opening line was 3 and the game’s over/under was initially set at 48.
The surprising Aztecs are 2-5 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 6.6 units so far. They’ve been a good under bet and have posted an O/U record of 1-6.
The Wolf Pack are down 0.3 units this season. The team is 4-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-4-1.
The Aztecs have gone 6-1 straight up (SU), including 3-0 SU against MWC opponents. The Wolf Pack are 4-4 SU overall and 2-2 SU in conference play.
These two teams faced off last year with the final outcome being a 42-23 win for San Diego State.
The Aztecs look to keep it going after a 16-13 win over San Jose State last week. Ryan Agnew completed seven-of-11 passes for just 86 yards. Chase Jasmin (79 rushing yards on 19 attempts, one TD) and Chance Bell (81 yards on 15 carries) provided the running attack while Fred Trevillion (two receptions, 37 yards) and Jasmin (two catches, 34 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.
Nevada takes the field on Saturday having just earned a 40-22 win over Hawaii. The defense let the Rainbow Warriors run for 112 yards on 35 rush attempts. John Ursua had a good outing in the loss, posting 123 yards on seven catches for Hawaii. For Nevada, Ty Gangi completed 21-of-29 passes for 247 yards and one touchdown. Toa Taua (126 rushing yards on 18 attempts, one TD) handled the running game while Kaleb Fossum (six receptions, 86 yards) and Romeo Doubs (four catches, 33 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
San Diego State has run the ball on 68.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Nevada has a rush percentage of 46.4 percent. The Aztecs have produced 176.9 rush yards per game (including 148.3 per game versus Mountain West opponents) and have 10 scores on the ground this year. The Wolf Pack are putting up 159.9 rushing yards per game (152.8 in conference) and have 16 total rush TDs.
If the results so far this season are any indication, then it appears the Wolf Pack should hold an edge when it comes to applying pressure. Their offensive line has yielded just 11 sacks while the D-line has logged 23 sacks. The Aztecs O-line has allowed 19 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing QBs just 13 times.
The Aztecs offense has averaged 157.3 yards through the air overall (137.3 per game versus conference opposition) and has four passing scores so far. The Wolf Pack have put up 272.0 pass yards per contest (255 against MWC competition) and have 15 total pass TDs.
Defensively, San Diego State appears to have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 83.6 rush yards and 223.3 pass yards per game. The Nevada D has allowed 261.9 yards per game to opposing passers and 139.9 yards per game on the ground. The Aztecs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.64 to opposing QBs, while the Wolf Pack have allowed a 6.99 ANY/A.
Gangi has been more efficient than Agnew of late. His adjusted net yards per pass attempt stands at 7.01 for the season and 7.64 over his last two games while Agnew’s ANY/A is 5.33 and 6.15 over his last two.
San Diego State Aztecs at Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Prediction
SU Winner: San Diego State, ATS Winner: San Diego State, O/U: Under
